What will be the impact of the withdrawal of QS in Camille-Laurin?

With the withdrawal of the candidate of Quebec solidaire (QS) in Camille-Laurin, some voters considering voting for Marie-Eve Rancourt could concede their vote to the leader of the Parti québécois (PQ). On the other hand, this may not be enough to give him victory, believe the experts consulted by Subway.

Political analyst and creator of the Qc125 platform, Philippe J. Fournier, estimates that nearly half of the solidary electorate in Camille-Laurin could simply cancel their vote on October 3. This estimate includes the solidarity votes which were carried out in advance on September 25 and 26 and which will be “rejected”.

« Of course it’s easier to be alone against the CAQ than to have QS in the paws, but I would not be ready to say that [Paul St-Pierre Plamondon] is a favorite again”, explains the analyst.

Nevertheless, according to the most recent update of the projection of Qc125 on the vote in this riding, the gap between the candidate of the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ), the incumbent Richard Campeau, and the leader of the PQ, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has shrunk. If the gap was 12 points last week, it has now fallen to 5 percentage points, thus being within the margin of error of + or – 8%.

Projection of the vote in Camille-Laurin (September 26, 2022):

• CAQ: 42%
• QP: 37%
• QLP: 9%
• PCQ: 7%

To make this projection, Philippe J. Fournier took into account the second choice of voters, “as published by the Léger poll” of September 25. According to this poll, 44% of QS voters have Paul St-Pierre Plamondon as their second choice.

Fratricidal struggle between the PQ and QS

If we sometimes observe a certain acrimony between the militants of the PQ and those of QS, this does not mean that it is reflected in the electorate, specifies for his part the political columnist Nic Payne.

“It is certain that all those who were considering voting for Québec solidaire will not vote for Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, in particular the most inflamed activists who, as we know, are often particularly opposed to the PQ for all sorts of reasons. “explains the columnist.

On the other hand, there is undoubtedly a part of voters, more sensitive to the most consensual progressive ideas of QS, and sovereignist, who could indeed switch to the PQ in this county.

Nic Payne, political columnist

If the lecturer in the Department of Political Science at UQAM André Lamoureux believes, like Nic Payne, that some QS supporters in this riding will vote for the PQ, he thinks that others will prefer to vote for the candidate. liberal.

“There are many more affinities between the Liberal Party and Québec solidaire than between QS and the PQ. On multiculturalism, on the thesis of systemic racism, opposition to Bill 21, the issue of mass immigration, they are very close.

André Lamoureux also considers that QS was never in favor of Quebec independence. The refusal of Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois to invite the voters of Camille-Laurin to vote for the PQ supports this thesis according to him.

“We will not give voting instructions to the voters of Camille-Laurin. I trust voters. I let them make their choice on October 3. Our objectives are the same as on the first day of the election campaign. We are in the campaign to make gains.”

– Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, QS co-spokesperson

An impact on the campaign in general?

For Philippe J. Fournier, the story of Marie-Eve Rancourt is truly local and he would be surprised if it had an impact on the electoral results of Québec solidaire in general.

« [Marie-Eve Rancourt] made the decision that makes this case a very short story. If she had stayed, we probably would have talked about it all week.

Same story on the side of Nic Payne, who does not think that the “average voter” was so surprised and scandalized by this story, “especially since the party acted fairly quickly and quite drastically”.

“There is always damage, but it will not be major,” adds the columnist.

Unlike Mr. Fournier and Mr. Payne, André Lamoureux believes that this story will be “quite harmful” for the results of QS on October 3, undermining the confidence of voters in this party.

“There will be a descent of the vote in favor of QS, he says. It is possible that the party will even suffer a backlash in the number of deputies.”

André Lamoureux adds that this weakens QS in the battles he leads in the ridings of Verdun, Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne and Maurice-Richard.