Categories: Business & Economy

What then happens in France after the resignation of Lecornu?

French President Emmanuel Macron is making gestures as he speaks to the press at the end of the 7th Summit of the European political community (EPC) at Bella Center in Copenhagen, Denmark, October 2, 2025.

Ludovic Marin | AFP | Getty images

French President Emmanuel Macron faces another massive political head following the resignation of shock from his Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu – after only 27 days in office.

The former Minister of Defense and a long -standing ally resigned on Monday before defining the plans of his government, claiming that he was unable to direct the minority government of the central right after interviews with rival parties reported that they were not willing to compromise on their respective budget and their respective policy requests.

“Each political party behaves as if it had its own majority in Parliament,” said Lecornu, and the “conditions have not been met” to stay in office, according to comments translated by France 24.

The crisis of France is largely found in the manufacture of Macron, the president dissolving with confidence the Parliament last year in order to bring “clarity” to the divided National Assembly of France.

The non -conclusive elections that followed brought something other than, with the right and the left, gaining consecutive voting cycles, leading to a power struggle and a political dead end which has continued since. Macron, little willing to give in the government’s management on each side, rather appointed loyalists to direct minority governments, but they proved to be vulnerable to the without confidence of rival parties.

The short -term government of Lecornu was the third to have failed after the unhappy administrations of Michel Barnier and François Bayrou. What they have in common is that they have all had trouble concluding agreements with other parties on the state budget, and in particular on spending reductions and tax increases considered to slow down the France’s budget deficit with 5.8% of its gross domestic product in 2024.

In a surprise turn on Monday evening, Macron gave Lecornu 48 overtime for “final discussions” with rival evenings to try to break the dead end. Lecornu wrote on X that he will come under the president on Wednesday evening on any potential breakthrough “so that he can draw all the necessary conclusions”.

What comes next?

Macron is now faced with the little enviable task of deciding what to do without any option likely to be attractive to the besieged president, who has repeatedly declared that he would not resign, a decision that would trigger a new presidential election which should not currently take place before 2027.

French President Emmanuel Macron speaks at a United Nations Summit on the Palestinians at the UN headquarters at the United Nations General Assembly (Unga) in New York on September 22, 2025.

Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty images

He could choose another Prime Minister – the sixth in France in less than two years – but choosing one not from his own political stable will be an uncomfortable and non -edifying perspective for Macron, who has chosen the loyalists several times to lead the government last year.

Or it can dissolve Parliament and organize new parliamentary elections. This option will not appeal either, because the National Anti-Immigration Party of Marine Le Pen currently leads the elections of voters, seen with around 32% of the votes compared to the 25% of the votes held by the left Alliance, the new Popular Front.

Macron is considered to be unlikely to choose to resign, according to analysts. “It’s too dangerous for him to do the right thing and he does not want to withdraw from power,” Douglas Yates, professor of political science in INSEAD, in CNBC on Monday.

“The only thing I can say with security today is that Macron will not announce his own resignation and it would therefore seem that the simplest thing to do would be to name another Prime Minister, what he does as I change shirts, and if the new PM does not last long, he could name another. And it would be playing his institutional advantage.”

Yates did not think that Macron would call for new elections “because the last time he did it was so catastrophic” and that new polls would again reflect the polarized nature of politics in France, with a chasm between the far left and extreme right voters. “People would abandon his party and vote with their hearts, left or right,” added Yates.

Left or right?

There are speculations according to which Macron could take the plunge and appoint an PM which is not an ally of its own centrist political backyard, with a choice of the Socialist Party of Center-Gauche.

There is little chance that Macron would opt for a candidate on the part of France far from France or the national far -right rally, the two parties calling Macron’s dismissal on Monday.

The president of the national parliamentary group of gathering, Marine Le Pen, addresses the press upon her arrival at her party headquarters in Paris, October 6, 2025.

Thomas Samson | AFP | Getty images

“So far, he has chosen the bad person, and by choosing people from the center, he has alienated the left and the right,” said Yates.

“I think he would do better by throwing fresh meat in the center-left which could help him constitute a government and perhaps avoid a censorship movement, so I think that a socialist would probably be the most acceptable, or even one of the candidates of the Greens,” said Yates.

And, the budget?

While political paralysis continues in Paris, the 2026 budget remains in limbo and economists say that it is increasingly likely that this year’s budget is gathered for next year as a measurement of stops.

Yacine Rouimi of Deutsche Bank said on Monday that if the government had collapsed, as it did, then France would probably operate under a special law, “by maintaining the expenses near the frame of 2025, the deficit landing around 5.0 to 5.4% of GDP.”

“It is not impossible that we will soon see new elections,” said Rouimi.

If Macron chooses to choose a new Prime Minister from a different party, such as the Socialist Party, this could mean discounts of spending filed by previous administrations which have failed, could be decided and reduced further.

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Michael Johnson

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