What results for Jair Bolsonaro’s Brazil?

Bolsonaro is not a parenthesis. It is a moment in Brazilian history that has been going on for several decades and will continue to weigh on politics.

Anaïs Fléchet, Lecturer in History at the University of Paris-Saclay Olivier Compagnon, Professor of History at the Institute for Advanced Studies in Latin America

The balance sheet is bitter. Already battered by the parliamentary coup against Dilma Rousseff in 2016, democratic institutions have been weakened by the questioning of the electoral system, by a militarization of the state apparatus or by unpunished political assassinations (in particular that by Marielle Franco). While the fight against the corruption of political elites had been one of the slogans of the Bolsonarist campaign of 2018, clientelist practices and the embezzlement of public funds have multiplied. On September 7, 2022, the call for his supporters to demonstrate in Brasilia with arms in hand raised the specter of a contested election results and a possible Brazilian-style assault on the Capitol.

In a tense international context, the neoliberal potion of the Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, has not made it possible to restore strong and sustainable growth. Poverty has increased and huge inequalities have widened further. On the environmental level, the dismantling of protective devices and the unconditional support for agribusiness, the engine of deforestation, have made the Amazon, but also the Pantanal or Mato Grosso, martyr spaces. The denial of the Covid pandemic by the federal state has led to a disastrous demographic toll, especially among the Indian and Afro-descendant populations. Unable to gain legitimacy beyond Brazilian borders, Bolsonaro, more isolated than ever since Trump’s electoral defeat and Latin America’s new left turn, has also contributed to Brazil’s downgrading on the international scene.

A simple parenthesis before tomorrows that sing then? We would be wrong to think so. Bolsonaro is the product of a long time when the shadow of the military, who ruled the country with an iron fist between 1964 and 1985, weighs structurally on politics. It is also the symptom of a regime, resulting from the 1988 Constitution, which never allows the emergence of a stable parliamentary majority and subjects all the political actors to obscure negotiations and adventurous compromises. As in France or Italy, where the rise of the extreme right is part of a processual dynamic of several decades; Bolsonarism is a moment in Brazilian history in its own right. Now allied with the conservative right and faced with an economic context that has nothing to do with that of the 2000s, Lula will have to deal with this radical electorate, attached to the traditional values ​​of family and religion, often linked to churches. evangelists and quick to denounce the enemies of the interior that would embody the LGBTQIA + communities, the protest artists and so many others.

To get an idea of ​​the outgoing president’s personality for yourself, just read a small anthology of some of his statements.

Hervé Théry, Emeritus Research Director at the CNRS, Visiting Professor at the University of São Paulo

A full review of Jair Bolsonaro’s tenure is being compiled by a group of experts and will be published shortly in the journal’s new format. Latin American issues. While waiting to be able to refer to it, it seemed appropriate to us, so that readers can get an idea of ​​his personality for themselves, to let Jair Bolsonaro speak for himself. A first selection of his statements was collected in 2019 in issue 56 of the magazine Outland.

“In reality, the Brazilian cavalry was very incompetent. The American cavalry was much more competent, it decimated the Indians and nowadays this problem no longer arises in its country. “The mistake of the dictatorship was to torture instead of killing. “Pinochet should have killed more people. “I had four sons, the fifth time I had a moment of weakness and it was a girl. “I couldn’t love a homosexual son. I won’t be a hypocrite: I would rather one of my sons die in an accident than see him arrive with a moustache. For me then he would really be dead. “In these homosexual couples 90% of the adopted boys will be homosexual and will go into prostitution, without a doubt. “God first. No question of a secular state. The state is Christian and the minority that is against it should go. Minorities must bow to majorities. “I went to a quilombo (1) at Eldorado Paulista. These Afro-descendants, they do nothing! I don’t think they’re even good at procreating anymore. “Trump is doing great government in his country. « I’m not raping you because you don’t deserve it » (in December 2014, to federal deputy Maria do Rosário).

A second set of statements was collected on the Poder360.com site, under the title “Two years of Covid: remember 30 phrases from Bolsonaro on the pandemic”, reporting on each date the number of Covid deaths in the country. . On March 9, 2020 (0 deaths): “The destructive power of this virus is oversized. Perhaps it is even exaggerated for economic reasons. » On April 28, 2020 (5,050 deaths): “So then, I’m sorry. What do you want me to do there? » June 2, 2020 (31,199 dead): “We are sorry for all the dead, but it is everyone’s fate. » On December 17, 2020 (184,827 deaths): “If you take the vaccine and become an alligator, I have nothing to do with it. » On January 5, 2021 (197,777 deaths): “Brazil is broke. I can not do anything. » On May 17, 2021 (436,537 deaths): “There are idiots who, even today, stay at home. » On September 8, 2021 (584,421 deaths): “The Covid just shortened their lives by a few days or a few weeks. » January 22, 2022 (622,801 dead)« I’m deeply sorry, but it’s a negligible number. » As of September 26, 2022, Brazil has reached a total of 34,638,288 Covid cases and 685,835 deaths from this disease.