US Open 2022 Odds, Picks, Predictions, Golf Betting, Schedule


Yesterday we showcased our favorite spin-off selections for the 2022 US Open at the Country Club in Brookline, Mass. Today we focus on matchup markets.

I’ve identified three head-to-head games that I believe give bettors an excellent chance of cashing in a ticket. In fact, one of the matches features an underdog who, according to my statistical model, should be a favorite. As for the other two, I support the favorites which are justified.

So, without further ado, here are the head-to-head markets I’m aiming for for the 2022 US Open – which kicks off on Thursday, June 16 and will air on NBC and USA Network, as well as stream on Peacock.

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Best Bet #1 – Xander Schauffele (-125) vs. Cameron Smith

Odds via BetMGM

If you had asked me about this game a few weeks ago, I would have rated these players at a similar level.

However, Smith’s performance at the RBC Canadian Open, on a course with similar skill requirements to the Country Club, leaves me wondering if he can conquer this weekend’s event. What’s more, the Aussie’s normally dependable putter has faltered in recent weeks – he’s now lost shots on the pitch with the flatstick in three of his last four events.

Finally, although it is quite consistent compared to my model (13th in 12-shot model, 18th in 24-shot projection), I am alarmed by its ability to hit the fairways. In the 12-round projection, Smith ranks 79th in the field in fairways earned. Additionally, he is outside the top 75 in both putting metrics, including ranking 101st in the 5-10 foot field.

Xander Schauele on the green.
Xander Schauele watches a put.
Getty Images

On the other hand, Schauffele has seen his numbers improve lately. Over his last eight qualifying laps, he sits 11th in the field – seven places ahead of Smith. Basically, he finds fairways and greens – ninth in good shots won, 26th in GIRs won – and is also strong around the greens (11th in SG:ARG).

But the biggest difference between this pair lately – avoiding mistakes. Over their final eight laps, Schauffele is 27th in the field avoiding bogeys, while Smith is 40 places worse at 67th.

Since Schauffele is a bit close to matching Smith’s SG: approach record (1st for Smith vs. 14th for Schauffele), I’d play this down to -130.

Bet on the US Open 2022?

Best Bet #2 – Brian Harman (-120) vs. Jason Kokrak

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

On a course where length is not paramount, Harman’s precision with the pilot and on the approach should give him a good chance this week.

In his last 12 qualifying rounds, Harman ranks 22nd in the field in my statistical model. Most notably, he is 14th in fairways won, 18th in strokes won: approach, and seventh in opportunities won. Additionally, he is 22nd from the field in SG: Par 4’s.

Meanwhile, Kokrak is not a player who does well at the Country Club. He is 77th in the field in his last 12 qualifying rounds and has lost strokes on the approach in five of his last seven qualifying rounds. Additionally, he’s lost shots around the green in four of his last five rounds and lost shots on par-4s in three of his last four.

Kokrak is also a player who doesn’t avoid bogeys at very high pace. Over the last 12 laps, he is 92nd in the field in bogey avoidance. He also doesn’t win many opportunities to make up for those mistakes, as he ranks 59th in opportunities won.

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The last advantage for Harman? His form at the US Open. He made the cut in four consecutive appearances at this major and finished in the top-20 twice while finishing in the top-40 all four times. As for Kokrak, he missed the cut last year and has just two top-40 finishes in his last four US Open starts.

For all these reasons, play Harman down to -135.

Best Bet #3 – Collin Morikawa (+105) on Will Zalatoris

Odds via BetMGM

Which element do you trust more: Morikawa’s putting or Willy Z’s driver? In my opinion, the answer to this question decides this game.

My modeling suggests that, if Morikawa can even putt average, he will have the edge over Zalatoris. Over the last 12 qualifying heats, Morikawa ranks 19th on the field. In terms of specific metrics, he is 24th in good drives won, third in SG: approach and 24th in GIRs won. He is also fifth in chances won and 19th in bogey avoidance.

Now, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the fact that he’s 88th in putting from five to 10 feet and 112th from 10 to 15 feet despite all those opportunities.

Collin Morikawa walks to the second green during the third round of the Masters at Augusta National Golf Club on April 9, 2022 in Augusta, Georgia.
Collin Morikawa
Getty Images

But, Zalatoris turned out to be significantly worse with the driver. He is 122nd in fairways won and 99th in good shots won in his last 12 qualifying rounds. He is also 27 points behind Morikawa in SG: approach and 31 points behind in bogey avoidance.

Above all, Zalatoris might also see a negative regression with the putter soon. He is 73rd in chances gained but 98th in passing from 10 to 15 feet.

Based on these metrics, I would have rated these players closer to a pick. Thus, I am happy to support Morikawa at a good price.


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