Pamela Maldonado
Six weeks after the start of the season, the Heisman race does not look like anything in August, the National Title Board changes but above all stable, and a Big 12 team could be much more dangerous than the market does not realize it.
From the push of Carson Beck to the favorite status in case under the radar of Ahmad Hardy, from the regular ascent of Miami to the competence in eliminatory series to the reason why the price of the Alabama still does not make sense, here is what the chances tell us and where the real edges of Paris are always.
The greatest line moves for the winner of the Heisman trophy
Carson Beck, QB, Miami +600 
Last week +1200
Six weeks of full football, six new Heisman favorites. Beck is the new favorite. He appeared on my list at +2,200 pre-season but at +600, it would be a no for me.
There is a partial merit, but it is more about the story and the success of the team than raw statistics. Beck was not statistically dominant, apart from the top 50 on a national scale in the yards by the pass and only 22nd in towers, but he heads a team of the top 5 of an undefeated Miami, and releases his best performance of the season (4 TD, 0 int against Florida State).
In one year without favorite on the run, these efficiency measures associated with victory in an eliminatory caliber program are sufficient to justify its climb at the top of the Heisman board of directors.
Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri +3000
Last week: +3500
Hardy is in the top 15 in the odds, so why raise a player so far halfway through the season? Because some players should be recognized for their contributions. Hardy’s ratings have improved each week, and even if it is unlikely that it arrives in New York, there is a real merit to its ratings of HEisman rising. It does not only produce a volume, but an impact of elite and focused on efficiency leading the nation in the grounds on the ground, second in the precipitated affected and holds the highest PFF precipitation note.
Its combination of most sites after contact and elite explosiveness (21 points of more than 10 yards, with equal races of more than 15 yards) shows that it is both strongly invoked as a game. This mixture of dominance, consistency and large -scale capacity is exactly what raises a ball carrier in a serious assertion of Heisman. Or at least, maintains a team that no one speaks, pushed under the spotlight when the least awaited.
On the bridge: a defense of the Alabama which ranks in the last 25 under the yards per race and the precipitation scores allowed on the road this season.
The biggest line movement for the national championship ratings
Alabama +700
Last week +800
It is less the movement of the line and more of my evaluation of the crimson tide being the third largest rating for the title. I do not agree. The defense of Alabama is far behind the contenders for Elite, ranking outside the top 40 of the EPA / Play authorized and fighting against the race and the pass.
Bama’s offensive remains inconsistent and unbalanced with a success rate lower than the average (45%) and limited explosiveness, defects that make them less complete than Ohio State or Oregon and even lagging behind Miami. I still can’t see it. And to reiterate what I say every week, the tests are still coming.
Miami +800
Last week +1500
Miami deserves to be the third favorite because they are one of the most balanced teams in the country, combining a defense among the first 20 which generates the negative EPA against the race and the passage with an offense which improves regularly in efficiency and the success rate.
With this emerging bidirectional consistency, the chances go from +1500 to +800 reflect a legitimate increase in their championship ceiling. The Hurricanes correspond to the plan for a national team.
Consideration of bets: Texas Tech to win the Big 12 (-110)
1:10
What separates Texas Tech from the rest of the Big 12?
Pamela Maldonado breaks down why Texas Tech stands out as one of the most dangerous contenders in Big 12.
When I shared Texas Tech for the first time at +115 to win the Big 12 on ESPN BET on Monday afternoon, I said that this number would not last, and that was not the case. It has already gone to -110, which is the way the market confirms what data shows: technology is the most complete team of the conference.
At -110, the bet is always playable if you believe that the Red Raiders will finish work in December. But if you prefer to pay a little more security, -180 to make the playoffs is a viable alternative. This post covers more paths, including scenarios where Texas Tech goes 12-0 but loses the Big 12 title game, or finishes 11-1 and can still win a place based on the calendar force.
Before week 7, the Red Raiders are 5-0 and do it with a profile that translates in December: a balanced and explosive offense and one of the best defenses in the country.
The Red Raiders are the first in race defense and in cover, third in the production of Pass-Rush, the opponents having reached the red zone only nine times all season. This is the type of team that does not only gain shootings, but which can also cring you.
And the path is not as intimidating as it seems. Byu is the only undefined team of the conference, but it is the gold of the madman, and the market knows. The cougars are seated at -1800 to miss the playoffs. This leaves only two real roadblocks for Texas Tech: road games at Arizona State and Kansas State. Win one of these, and they almost certainly play for the Big 12 title and probably play much more.
If you already have a ticket +550 of my pre -season overview, the best edge is now -180 to make the playoffs. Because if Tech wins the Big 12, they are guaranteed a CFP spot.
Their seven before is pressure without Blitz, their secondary closes the launch of windows, and the quarterrière Behren Morton has the talent of the arm and the balance to exchange punches with anyone. It is not only a fun offense to start hot. Texas Tech is a complete list led by veterans with a ceiling high enough to make noise on the largest scene in sport. So far, it looks like money (no one) well spent because they no longer sleep – they are the real deal.
