The WTO increases global trade forecasts for 2025; slowdown expected in 2026

The World Trade Organization increased its world growth forecasts on Tuesday in 2025, but warned that the prospects of 2026 had deteriorated.

In its latest report “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” published Tuesday, the WTO predicted that the growth of the commercial volume in 2025 would amount to 2.4%, up in relation to a previous estimate of 0.9% in the August report of the sales organization.

The prospects for next year are not so rose, however, the organization has reduced its previous expectations by 1.8% growth in the volume of trade next year to 0.5% dull.

“Trade growth is expected to slow down in 2026 when the world economy cools and the full impact of higher prices is finally felt for a full year,” said the WTO.

Trade prices have become a dominant characteristic and the front wind for world trade since US President Donald Trump shocked friends and enemies with his large -scale pricing regime in April.

The countries have rushed to conclude trade agreements with the White House, but even the Allies, such as the United Kingdom, saw a reference rate of 10% stay on the goods exported to the United States

World commercial volumes increased sharply in the first half of 2025 – up 4.9% in annual shift – with several factors contributing to solid expansion.

These included the front loading of imports to the United States in anticipation of higher commercial prices and favorable macroeconomic conditions with disinflation, budgetary support policies and narrow labor markets stimulating real income and expenses in major economies, said the WTO.

Strong growth in emerging markets and increased demand for goods related to AI-including semiconductors, servers and telecommunications equipment-also fueled the growth in global trade, he added, with expenditure related to AI resulting in almost half of the overall trade expansion in the first half of the year, increasing 20% ​​in range from one year to the other.

Global competition in the development of AI products has warmed up with the United States and Asia that seek to dominate the sector.

The WTO noted that the United States represented approximately a fifth of the world growth of trade linked to the AI ​​in the first half of 2025. The majority of the expansion came from Asia, which represented almost two-thirds of the growth of global trade linked to AI at the same time.

Large economies rush to develop their artificial intelligence capacities, the United States and China seeking to dominate the sector. The WTO noted that the United States represented approximately a fifth of the world growth of trade linked to the AI ​​in the first half of 2025. The majority of the expansion came from Asia, which represented almost two thirds of the growth of world trade linked to AI during the same period.

“The growth of exchanges lasted the digital value chain, gross silicon gases and specialty to devices supplying cloud platforms and AI applications,” said the WTO in its report, noting that “Asia export performance was strong in AI products, in accordance with the global overvoltage of investment in this sector”.

A key risk of the last forecast is the spread of restrictive commercial measures and political uncertainty to more savings and sectors, the WTO economists noted. Uplining, they said that sustained growth in trade for AI goods and services could increase in the medium term to global trade.

The growth of exports of global services should slow from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026. Although not subject directly to prices, the trade in services can be affected indirectly, although links to trade and production of goods.

For the future, possible signs of weakness in commercial and manufacturing production had already been observed in developed economies, in particular the reduction of confidence of businesses and consumers and slower employment and income, noted the WTO.

Commenting on the latest organizational prospects, Director General Ngozi Okonjo -Iweala said that “countries have measured the response to price changes in general, IA growth potential, as well as the increase in trade between the rest of the world – especially among emerging economies – helped to mitigate trade setbacks in 2025.

“Commercial resilience in 2025 is largely thanks to the stability provided by the multilateral trading system based on rules. However, complacency is not an option.” She added.

“Today’s disturbances for the global trade system are a call for action so that nations reinvent trade and throw a stronger basis that offers greater prosperity for people around the world,” said Okonjo-Iweala.