A lowered support means that the capacity should now reach the most 4,600 GW by 2030, 900 GW lower than the 2024 estimate.
Posted on October 7, 2025
The International Energy Agency (IAI) has reduced its growth forecasts for renewable powers to 2030, citing lower prospects in the United States and China.
The agency based in Paris now projects a total renewable capacity will reach 4,600 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, against 5,500 GW in last year’s forecasts, according to a report published on Tuesday.
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This suggests that a global objective of tripling renewable energy consumption by 2030 to combat climate change will fail.
The early abolition of federal tax incentives with renewable energies in the United States, presented in “One Big Beau Bill” by President Donald Trump, is a key engine of the reduced estimate.
The challenges in China, where the government goes on electricity prices guaranteed for renewable energy projects to competitive auctions that limit profits, are also a factor, said the IAI.
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This is not all bad news, however, said the IAI. Although growth in China and the United States can slow down, there is a more positive perspective elsewhere.
The agency underlined India, which “is on the right track to reach its 2030 objective and become the second market for renewable energies growth, the capacity should increase by 2.5 times in five years”.
He also increased forecasts for the Middle East and North Africa by 25%, while capacity prospects in Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain have also been increased.
Solar energy benefits from a strong lead in the development of renewable energies.
Solar panels have represented around 80% of the global growth in renewable energies in the past five years, estimates of the AIE, followed by wind, water, biomass and geothermal power.
The prospects for offshore wind energy have been revised lower due to policy changes in key countries, said the AIE – in particular the United States, which has sought to stop the projects already under construction.
The AIE has sought to clarify the potential advantages of removing renewable capacities in the current geopolitical climate, noting that its development helps countries achieve objectives for greater financial and energy security.
“The deployment of renewable energies has already reduced the need for significantly fuel import in many countries, improving the diversification and safety of energies,” he said.
