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The Nupes forces Macron to negotiate, the RN at its peak

A slap and an incongruity for the Fifth Republic: less than two months after being (poorly) re-elected President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron obtained only a small relative majority in the National Assembly, with 246 seats out of 577 A huge snub that will force the President of the Republic to an attitude that he seems unable to adopt: compromise with the legislative power. “We are going towards a five-year term where the role of Parliament will be rehabilitated”, considers the constitutionalist Dominique Rousseau.

The National Assembly can no longer be a recording chamber and will have to regain its central place in French democracy. A situation that sounds like a backlash for Emmanuel Macron after five years spent abusing parliamentary life and democracy, with states of emergency, contempt for the opposition and Playmobil deputies voting the texts without flinching. The voters sanctioned the presidential monarchy of Jupiter and many tenors, such as the president of the Assembly Richard Ferrand, the president of the parliamentary group Christophe Castaner and three ministers (Amélie de Montchalin, Justine Benin and Brigitte Bourguignon).

Still massive abstention

The gathering of left-wing parties has a lot to do with it. Admittedly, the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) did not succeed in its bet to obtain a majority in the National Assembly, probably not helped by the massive abstention (54%) in the second round. But its 150 deputies will be decisive in countering the anti-social policy of Emmanuel Macron. “We are a united force which will allow us to be the first opposition force (…). There will be no compromises, we will remain firm on our commitments and will relentlessly face Emmanuel Macron’s project, ”promised Aurélie Trouvé, new rebellious deputy. Retirement at 65, the conditioning of the RSA, the reform of the school, the new tax gifts to the richest and other destructive reforms of public services, purchasing power and the planet will they survive the force of opposition from the left? “The President of the Republic will have to give up many of his social regression reforms”, advances the spokesman of the PCF, Ian Brossat.

These “combat” deputies will also be able to be the force of progressive proposals for five years and relay the needs and concerns of the population. With rare profiles, symbolized by Rachel Kéké, chambermaid spokesperson for the Ibis Batignolles strikers in 2019. same in what will happen”, thus greeted them Jean-Luc Mélenchon, also citing associative activists like François Piquemal, former of Right to housing, Alma Dufour, Friends of the Earth, Rodrigo Arenas, of the FCPE.

So many elected officials qualified as “extremists”, sometimes “anarchists” by a Macronie in total democratic defeat during this legislative campaign. Seeking to place the Nupes outside the republican field, the Macronie has put the left on the same level as the far right. To the point of not calling to block the RN in 55 of the 62 constituencies where the far right faced the left. Results of this shameful game: here is the Lepenist party at its highest, with a group of about 90 deputies. The reasons for this sinister record are multiple, but the responsibility of Macronie is immense.

LRs “in opposition”

By greatly participating in the normalization of the RN, Emmanuel Macron has let the far right settle institutionally and territorially. “This group could make the RN more powerful, it will seek to demonstrate that it is ready to take power,” said researcher Ludivine Bantigny. Marine Le Pen, who will seek to present herself as the main opponent of Emmanuel Macron, promises to impose “immigration, insecurity and the fight against Islamism” on the debates of the National Assembly. In addition to fighting against the policy of Emmanuel Macron, the more than 150 deputies on the left will therefore also have this heavy duty to form a bulwark against the RN. Especially since the renunciations of Macronie even seem to be able to go so far as to work with the far right: the Keeper of the Seals Éric Dupond-Moretti estimated that it will be possible “to move forward together”, in particular on texts relating on justice and security…

Because the executive is back to the wall. For the time being, no coalition allowing him to have an absolute majority is possible. The relative majority of Together! is too weak to deal with only a handful of the politically closest LR parliamentarians. Fully united, Together!, LR and the UDI represent 310 seats, more than the 289 necessary. But “Les Républicains” and their president, Christian Jacob, have already warned that they will remain “in opposition”, despite calls from Jean-François Copé and the president of Pays de la Loire, Christelle Morançais, to “build a government contract. In addition, some very right-wing parliamentarians, like Éric Ciotti, will not accept such a deal, while, even in the more centrist wing of LR, the vast majority follow the party line, like Aurélien Pradié “We will have a free and independent position, we will look at the subjects on a case-by-case basis. »

The risk of a motion of censure

For Emmanuel Macron, it will therefore be necessary to negotiate, probably text by text, by discussing them, taking into account the amendments, i.e. the role of the representatives of the nation. Negotiations which could even begin as soon as the new government is composed, at the risk that all the opposition forces vote for the motion of censure towards the executive, forcing him to resign. “It will be complicated, it will take imagination, audacity, openness to move forward, acknowledged government spokesperson Olivia Grégoire. We will deal with all those who want to move the country forward. »

True to their arrogance, the macronists appeal to “the higher interest of the nation” to use the words of the head of state, five days before the second round. Not retaining any lesson, they prolong their discourse consisting in presenting their texts as essential, unassailable: “I cannot imagine for a second that a majority cannot emerge for the law on purchasing power, to reform the transition ecological, same thing on the law for internal security, which will double the security staff, listed Olivier Véran, minister in charge of relations with Parliament, a now central role. Since our reforms are going in the right direction, we will systematically find majorities. »

This attitude, aimed at placing the responsibility on the shoulders of the opposition, could lead to rejection and a deadlock situation. Until leading to a dissolution of the National Assembly? The constitutionalists are torn over the possibility for Emmanuel Macron to dissolve before a year, while two thirds of the deputies can also do so. The now glaring political crisis will not be resolved by asking the people to change their minds, when what they are asking for is to change the rules.

A left that finds colors

In June 2017, the map of France was adorned with a lot of yellow, the color used to represent LaREM, and a little blue, a sign of the relative resistance of LR. In June 2022, this map of France was considerably reddened, proof that the operation to reconquer the left rather worked. If it did not succeed in becoming a majority in the Assembly, the total left goes from around sixty deputies to some 150 seats with the Nupes logo, including 74 for the FI, 29 for the PS, 23 for the environmentalist pole and 12 for the PCF, to which are added the ultramarines. Each of the components of the coalition is able to form a parliamentary group for the opening legislature, something that was far from guaranteed before the election.

This breakthrough of the left, which retains the majority of its outgoing, is particularly visible in Île-de-France, which concentrates nearly a third of its elected officials. Starting with Paris, where it won half of the seats (6 for the FI, 3 for EELV). It also signs a comeback in Val-de-Marne with six constituencies won out of eleven, including four conquests, in particular in areas of historically communist strength such as Villejuif or Ivry. Another major fact: the Nupes achieved a grand slam in the twelve districts of Seine-Saint-Denis with three conquests. Many territories that had elected a macronist in 2017 have returned to the fold of the left, for example in Brittany, overseas, in the Southwest. Enough to get out a few ministers, like Amélie de Montchalin in Essonne, and undermine the architecture of Together! in the Assembly by bringing down its president (Richard Ferrand) and the presidents of the LaREM and Modem groups (Christophe Castaner and Patrick Mignola).

On the other hand, outside the urban centers and their suburbs, things were more complicated for Nupes: it did not succeed in convincing enough in the north, east and south of France. There are indeed a few conquests to note in rural areas such as Tarn, Aveyron, Drôme or Haute-Vienne, where the left takes over the three seats in Macronie. In the Cher, the communist Nicolas Sansu, triumphant over the RN, recovers his seat as deputy, after a defeat in 2017 against LaREM. The only switch from the RN to Nupes concerns the 3rd district of Pas-de-Calais. We owe it to the PCF mayor of Avion, Jean-Marc Tellier, who, unlike the rest of the coalition, was able to convince a popular electorate not to vote for the far right thanks to his local presence.

“The alliance of left-wing forces and ecologists has made it possible to win a large number of deputies”, welcomed the national secretary of the PCF, Fabien Roussel. Before noting that the Nupes “only speaks to a part of France, that of the cities and not that of rurality”. Here is the new challenge for the left to hope to become a majority again in the near future: to succeed in convincing the abstainers and those whom some call the “angry not fachos” to vote for social and ecological progress.