The new political map of Great Britain – POLITICO

LONDON — Liz Truss’ haters are swirling around — and many of them will soon have one less reason to support her.

Britain’s Prime Minister is smothering several fires after a disastrous mini budget caused market turmoil. Still, MPs who might normally be expected to rally to Truss’s defense could soon be out of the game. A major redistricting conundrum looks set to sabotage their electoral chances no matter what.

MPs are preparing for the map of Britain’s constituencies to be redrawn, in a process that will leave politicians on all sides scrambling to claim and reclaim electoral territory.

The reforms are an attempt to equalize Britain’s parliamentary constituencies and rebalance representation towards London and the south of England, where the population has grown faster than the rest of the country.

But the changes will mean a crop of Tory MPs – many of whom are already deeply unhappy with Truss’ premiership – being bumped from secure seats to marginal seats, or in some cases no seats at all. It’s a change that could weaken the bonds of loyalty that normally sustain a prime minister.

The Boundaries Commission for England will publish its new constituency map on November 8.

Another Tory rebel said: ‘Colleagues hope their frantic pleas for the commission have been heard – no doubt many will suffer an unpleasant shock.’

out of here

The recutting of the scalps could be considerable. The seat occupied by Ben Wallace, the defense secretary who has led international appeals in support of Ukraine, is among the most affected. His sprawling constituency of Wyre and Preston North would effectively be abolished and its area split between five other seats.

Another Cabinet minister, Robert Buckland, could lose southern voting Conservative parts of his already fringe South Swindon constituency to a new rural seat. The seat of Treasury Minister and Truss loyalist Andrew Griffith is effectively abolished. Black Country constituencies are being redrawn in a way that could spark a battle between Chief Whip Wendy Morton in Aldridge-Brownhills and backbench MP Eddie Hughes in Walsall North. Their two constituencies are divided into new areas.

Backbench MP Andrew Percy risks losing chunks of his seat in Brigg and Goole to his neighbor David Davis, a former cabinet minister. Mike Wood’s constituency of Dudley South could be scrapped, with the number of seats in the region reduced from four – all currently held by Tories – to three.

Former top Cabinet ministers already left behind by Truss are also affected by the changes. Dominic Raab – the former Deputy Prime Minister whose constituency is besieged by Liberal Democrat challengers – would lose a staunchly Tory district. Former Health Secretary Matt Hancock’s seat in West Suffolk is set to be abolished and his area split between two other constituencies.

MPs have been pushing feverishly for changes that preserve the integrity of their constituencies, before proposals released next month go through a final public consultation.

Many of those left without a seat will be forced to jostle with colleagues over newly drawn areas bearing little resemblance to those they have represented for years. The final map of constituencies will be presented to Parliament next summer and is expected to come into force at the end of 2023.

If a general election is called before then, it will be contested according to the old constituency map. Some Tories believe the government is better off waiting for the new borders to come into effect, as it should help them win between five and 10 more seats. So while the changes reduce support for the prime minister from incumbent MPs, the Tories at least have reason to hope for the future.

Like the English version, the latest iteration of the Scottish political map will be released on November 8, while the Welsh version will arrive earlier on October 19.

Rob Hayward, a Tory peer and pollster, said: ‘While there are a final stage where you can make representations after these revised proposals, the story is that the Boundaries Commission actually makes very, very few changes after this stage. So we will know quite clearly what the places will be. »

« At that time there will be pressure on people to say whether they are going to retire or participate in the next election. »

The next generation

If you’re not yet an MP but want to become one, chances are your fate is in the hands of someone named Matt.

The Conservative picks are led by Matt Wright, Chair of Candidates for Conservative Party Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ); Matt Lane, Director of Candidates; and Gareth Fox, a veteran of the Conservative candidate selections.

On the Labor side, the key figures are Matt Pound, Keir Starmer’s head of political organizing, and Matt Faulding, appointed earlier this year to oversee the selections.

Labor and the Conservatives have overhauled their candidate selection processes since the last general election and are preparing candidates for the next vote, currently scheduled for 2024.

Both parties believe rushed selections ahead of snap elections in 2017 and 2019 caused some unsuitable candidates to slip away. Several MPs elected in 2019 have since lost the party whip following allegations of wrongdoing and, in some cases, criminal convictions.

The Conservatives revamped their selection process in 2020 for the first time in nearly two decades, introducing a more intensive selection and interview process. Although potential candidates are lined up, the party is awaiting final proposals from the Boundaries Commission before selecting most seats.

The Labor Party has also reviewed its process for selecting MPs. The party launched about a year ago what it called a « future candidate program », which involves intensive training to identify strong candidates and fast track them to key target seats.

Labor is continuing with its selections, although the constituency map is not yet known, and had picked around 40 candidates by the time of its annual conference in late September, according to a senior party official. Other key selections should take place before the end of the year.

This is a crucial set of selections for the opposition party, which believes – given the major challenges Truss faces – that it can win several dozen of its target seats and form the next government. Chris Curtis, head of political polls at Opinium, said: “The dramatic change since the mini-budget means that Labor would almost certainly win over 400 seats in current polls, possibly even surpassing Tony Blair’s result in 1997. This will include a wide range of places the party has never won before.

« Although it is more likely than not that Labor’s lead will diminish before the next election, there will still be plenty of seats up for grabs for which the party will have to find candidates. »

Tim Bowden, Secretary of the Boundary Commission, said: “While we are required by law to consider a number of factors when selecting constituencies, the Commission does not consider voting habits or results. policies.

“We have listened to the many valuable comments we received on our initial proposals, which were released last year, and have developed new suggestions for constituency boundaries. On November 8, we will publish these revised proposals on our website and launch our third and final consultation.“