The control of the house remains on the razor’s edge. Here’s how it could break.


The balance of power in the House currently stands at 211 Republicans and 199 Democrats – but, functionally, it is more narrowly divided. The unnamed race list includes two California contests where both general election candidates are Democrats. And allocating the dozen races where one party is clearly favored — but the AP has not appealed — adds eight seats to the Democratic Party’s tally and four races to Republicans.

That would put Republicans at 215 seats, just three seats from a majority, while Democrats would be at nine seats. But with 11 seats up in the air — six with Republicans leading and five with Democrats leading — both parties still have a chance, though the GOP is still favored.

Here’s a district-by-district breakdown of uncalled races as of Saturday afternoon, and what could happen next:

UP-FOR-GRAB RACES – 11 TOTAL, WITH GOP LEADING 6-5

Arizona-01 (Before November 8 POLITICO Election Forecast note: Lean Republican): Rep. David Schweikert is behind Democrat Jevin Hodge by 4,000 votes. Maricopa County, which includes the entire district, is expected to release more votes later Saturday, which could help Schweikert given the state’s tendency toward a “redshift” later in the count.

Arizona-06 (Lean Republican): Republican Juan Ciscomani holds only a narrow lead over Democrat Kirsten Engel – about 2,900 votes – in a race that has narrowed significantly since Election Day. It’s unclear if the remaining votes in Pima County (Tucson) will help Engel close the gap completely.

California-13 (Lean Republican): This one looks like a nail-biter: Republican John Duarte leads Democrat Adam Gray by 84 votes Saturday afternoon, with just 61% of the ballots, according to the Associated Press.

California-22 (throw): Is it already seen for Rep. David Valadao? The California Republican was so far ahead of his Democratic opponent on election night in 2018 that the AP declared him the winner – only to withdraw the call when Valadao fell behind weeks later. This time, Valadao (who eventually returned to Congress after winning in 2020) leads Democrat Rudy Salas by 5 points, but that’s already down from 8 points on Tuesday night.

California-41 (Lean Republican): Rep. Ken Calvert leads Democrat Will Rollins by about 2,100 votes in the Inland Empire, but it’s unclear how late-counted ballots will shatter.

California-47 (Democratic Lean): Rep. democrat. Katie Porter leads Republican Scott Baugh by 2 percentage points as late ballots in Orange County helped extend what was an extremely narrow lead on Election Day.

California-49 (throw): Rep. democrat. mike levin opened a 4-point lead over Republican Brian Maryott.

Colorado-03 (probably Republican): Rep. Lauren Boebert is up about 1,100 votes over Democrat Adam Frisch. Frisch must use Boebert’s advantage in the final polls to have any chance of overtaking her in the likely recount, which will happen if the two candidates finish within half a percentage point of each other. (Boebert currently leads by 0.4 points).

New York-22 (throw): Republican Brandon Williams has a nearly 4,000 vote lead over Democrat Francis Conole, who hopes the mail-in ballots yet to be counted in Syracuse will be enough to propel him to the top.

Oregon-06 (throw up): Democrat Andrea Salinas has a 4,000 vote lead over Republican Mike Erickson, with 79% of the constituency returns.

Washington-03 (Lean Republican): Joe Kent, the Donald Trump-endorsed candidate who eliminated the GOP representative. Jaime Herrera Beutler in the first two primaries in August, risks losing the Republican seat. Kent trails Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez by about 5,000 votes, but only 70% of the ballots are counted.


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