Fundamental overview
The increase in the dollar stopped last week as the closure of the United States government delayed many key American economic reports. The “re -evaluation of the dollar trade” needs solid American data to continue, in particular on the side of the labor market, so that any setback on this front will probably continue to weigh on the greenback. Market prices have now returned to 45 points of base of softening by the end of the year and to 110 base points by the end of 2026. This could still be too conciliatory, but we will need solid data to reassess the rates.
In the absence of government data, a drop in rates in October is now considered an accomplished case. The reality is that a reduction in expenses in October has never really been questioned. It is the December decline that could be ignored in case the data is strengthened. We still have three NFP reports and two CPI reports before the December meeting.
On the side of the AUD, little has changed in the meantime. The RBA kept everything unchanged during the last meeting, the Governor of the RBA, Bullock, not offering much in terms of prospective orientations other than the usual dependence on data and the meeting by meeting by meeting for interest rate decisions. Traders are waiting for the next quarterly report of the IPC and employment data. Currently, the market is expecting a softening of 14 base points by the end of the year and 30 base points in total by the end of 2026.
Audusd technical analysis – Daily calendar
Audusd daily
On the daily graphic, we can see that the withdrawal of the Audusd stopped at the highest the most recent at 0.6627. This is where the sellers continue to intervene with a risk defined above the level to position themselves for a fall towards the lowest of 0.6520. Buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price rise up to then increase bruise bets in the higher trend line.
Audusd technical analysis – 4 hours delay
Audusd 4 hours
On the 4 -hour graph, we can see that the pair has remained stuck in a range between the support of 0.6575 and the resistance of 0.6627. Market players will probably continue to play on the range until we obtain a break on one side or the other.
Audusd technical analysis – one hour delay
Audusd 1 hour
On the hourly graph, we cannot add much else here, because the sellers would better rely on the resistance or wait for a break down, while buyers will have a better risk of rewarding the configuration around the support. The red lines define the average daily fork for today.
Upcoming catalysts
On Thursday, we will have the president of the Fed, Powell, who will speak and requests for unemployment in the United States (if confinement is lifted). Friday, we conclude the week with the feeling of consumers of the University of Michigan.
