If you were to guess how many starlink satellites burn in the earth’s atmosphere on an average day, how much do you choose? This is not an inchious question – SpaceX is confusing about one or two satellites per day, and this number will only grow.
What this means for our planet is not entirely clear, explains Harvard Astrophysicist and Spatial Tracker Jonathan McDowell. Despite this, Starlink is not the risk of use of space that certain other satellite operations.
McDowell commented the massive volume of Starlink satellites back on the site of new Earthsky scientists last week. He explained that once the star bond and the other planned constellations of the low land earth total approximately 30,000 satellites, around five could reintegrate the atmosphere every day, given an average replacement cycle of about five years.
The register Followed by McDowell Monday to find out more about what it could mean for the health of the planet, and the possibility that we quickly approach Kessler syndrome, a scenario in which so many debris aggregating the orbit of the earth that a collision can trigger a chain reaction of other impacts, which potentially makes parts of the orbit of the land unused for satellites.
Starlink is not the biggest concern when it comes to passing Kessler’s tilting point, McDowell told us – but it is always a source of concern.
“Active satellite maneuvers to avoid collisions will help avoid Kessler,” said McDowell in a telephone conversation. “If they succeed. And it’s a big one.”
The current Denorbit strategy of starlink satellites, which operate in a low orbit below 600 kilometers, is to use the propellants of the satellites to move them to an orbit so low that they end up attracting the atmosphere and burn in what McDowell calls “uncontrolled but assisted” return.
Deliberate deorbiting, as well as the successful dodge, we can avoid Kessler syndrome, McDowell told us.
This is not the only problem that could arise with Starlink satellites and other constellations of bass orbitations of companies like Kuiper from Amazon. McDowell noted that there is also the possibility of a bizarre accident – let’s say a solar storm or another huge radiation event – which eliminates a bunch of orbiters, creating a bunch of waste that could lead to a situation of Kessler. The risk is not even unprecedented.
“If only one percent of Starlink satellites (assuming that the scheduled constellation of 30K) die on the station, it’s still 300 satellites,” said McDowell. “Three hundred great satellites could tip the low terrestrial orbit in Kessler.”
With the exception of the possibility of an unplanned disaster, Starlink operations are not the greatest concern, added McDowell. China’s satellite plans are much more worrying.
“The space closest to Kessler is the range of 600 to 1,000 kilometers,” said McDowell. “It is full of old stages of Soviet rocket and other things, the more we add to it, the more likely it is that Kessler syndrome will happen.”
While numerous satellite constellations offered by China will be in low terrestrial orbit at the same altitude as Starlink, McDowell noted that a number was planning to fly over 1,000 kilometers. Were something to hurt up there, noted McDowell: “We are probably screwed up”.
“This higher altitude means that the atmosphere will not cause them for centuries,” added McDowell. “And I have not seen (China) demonstrate retirement plans for these satellites.”
Kessler is bad, but destroying the atmosphere is worse
It would be a tragedy if humanity polluted the orbit of the earth to the point that we were actually cut off from space, but to poison ourselves by filling the atmosphere of the remains of burnt satellites and die before reaching Kessler syndrome, which would undoubtedly be worse.
McDowell is definitely worried about both, explaining that the effects on our planet “using the high atmosphere as an incinerator” are largely unknown and a massive and dangerous blind spot. Little research has been carried out on what the growing number of atmospheric revenues could do on the earth and the life it houses, but it is already shocking how many things float above our heads.
According to the National Administration of the United States Oceanic and Atmospheric, about 10% of aerosol particles in the stratosphere (the second layer of the earth’s atmosphere where the ozone layer) contains aluminum and exotic metals that come from rockets and satellites that have burned reinstatement. The NOAA estimates that this number could reach 50% as space launches and re -entries increase.
The little research has been carried out in the effects of so many foreign materials that burn in the earth’s atmosphere has not been conclusive, said McDowell.
“So far, the answers have varied” this is too small to be a problem “for” we are already screwed up “,” said McDowell. “But uncertainty is large enough for there to already be a possibility that we damage the upper atmosphere.”
A number of groups are currently looking for the effect of regular satellite incineration in our atmosphere, with concerns that they could lead to climate change or other catastrophic effects. One thing is certain: if the constellation of SpaceX becomes as large as expected and others join the company in low terrestrial orbit, we will have more than collisions to be feared.
“There are indications that things are already getting badly,” said McDowell about the effects of the reintegration of satellites on earth. “But it’s troubled right now, and it scares me.” ®
