[SONDAGE] Here are the voting intentions at the launch of the election campaign in Quebec

Despite the CAQ’s comfortable lead, the election campaign that will officially begin tomorrow could come as a surprise, in light of a poll that suggests intense regional battles on four distinct fronts.

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According to this very first sounding of the election campaign, 42% of Quebec voters would return François Legault to power, or one in two French speakers.

Still among Francophones, the Liberal leader, Dominique Anglade, is pushing her party into a historic low which now only reaches 7%.

« It’s still an exceptional lead of 35 points for François Legault among Francophones, » said pollster Jean-Marc Léger. But even if François Legault has dominated the voting intentions for four years, “all is not going so well for the CAQ”, he notes.

After more than two years of pandemic, on many unavoidable issues (vblackboard), the dissatisfaction is palpable, at least in relation to the expectations Quebecers had of their government.

“On most of the topics tested, the government is doing less well than expected,” notes Mr. Léger. That, for me, is a surprise, when you look at the strength of the intention to vote. »

At the dawn of the electoral campaign, 38% of voters could still change their minds. The games are therefore anything but made in advance. “There will be surprises,” believes the pollster.

“Dissatisfaction can emerge during the election campaign, this election is not over,” he considers.

Opposition divided

If 42% of Quebecers support the CAQ, there are still 58% who vote against. « It’s not that the CAQ is so strong: it’s that the opposition is divided, » said Mr. Léger.

A majority of Quebecers do not want to leave « absolute power » in the hands of the CAQ. A big question therefore remains unanswered by October 3: “Who will be the alternative”, wonders the pollster.

Best Prime Minister of Quebec

44% of Quebecers would choose François Legault.

Which of the following provincial political party leaders would make the best Premier of Quebec?

Dated

CAQ

Francis
Legault

PCQ

Eric
Duhaime

QS

Gabriel
Nadeau Dubois

QLP

Dominica
English

QP

Paul Saint Pierre
Plamondon

DK / Refusal: 20%

When voters are asked who would make the best opposition leader, 30% answer Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, of Québec solidaire, a score twice as high as the leaders of the PCQ, the PLQ and the PQ, who follow each other at 2% difference. For Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, « the election campaign will have a lot of impact, » believes Jean-Marc Léger.

Best Opposition to the CAQ

30% of Quebecers prefer Gabriel Nadeau Dubois.

Which of the current opposition leaders do you prefer?

Dated

QS

Gabriel
Nadeau Dubois

PCQ

Eric
Duhaime

QLP

Dominica
English

QP

Paul Saint Pierre
Plamondon

DK / Refusal: 28%

four fronts

According to him, it is more during “regional battles” on four distinct fronts, rather than on a national scale, that the game will be played. East of Montreal could be a more favorable battlefield for Québec solidaire. On the island, the Liberals will want to keep their more French-speaking ridings.

In the greater Quebec City region, it is the PCQ that will have to be watched, while in the east of the province, the Parti Québécois will try to save the day. All in all, 44% of voters continue to believe that among the leaders, François Legault would still make the best prime minister.

In this regard, the leader of the Conservative Party of Quebec, Éric Duhaime, improves his lot by five points compared to last month. The new player is now “as popular as his party,” observes Mr. Léger.

Unsurprisingly, it is among Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives that dissatisfaction with the Legault government is the most marked. « The most surly, the most anti-government, it’s no longer the left, » notes the pollster.

strengths and weaknesses

With, for the first time, five parties on the starting line, the race which officially begins tomorrow promises to be very interesting. Pollster Jean-Marc Léger, who has been taking the pulse of voters every month since the start of the year, gives us an overview of the strengths and weaknesses of the main opponents.

His strength: “She is everywhere, with a high vote.”

His weakness: « It’s at the academic level, where it drops to 27 percent. »

His strength: « It’s among academics, where he gets 28% of the vote, which is still interesting. »

His weakness: “It’s his French-speaking vote, which is 7%. »

His strength: “It’s young people (36% among 18-34 year olds). »

His weakness: “58% (of his voter base) can change his mind”

His strength: “It is to be the second choice of CAQ voters (29%).”

His weakness: « It’s to do only 5% with young people. »

His strength: “Quebec region (26% PCQ vs 47% CAQ).”

His weakness: “He is only the second choice of 8% of voters.”

Would you also like to take surveys? Sign up for LEO, Leger’s panel: https://bit.ly/3raMw62