Social conservatives see growth in conservative membership as an opportunity – National

Some social conservatives see the massive influx of new Conservative Party members as an “opportunity” to strengthen their movement’s influence within the party.

It remains to be seen, however, how well “socon” groups will succeed in recruiting among the roughly 400,000 new members the party claims to have signed during the current leadership race – or how likely the next leader, Pierre Poilievre, will be indebted. to faction.

No campaign – or even the party itself – fully understands who exactly the new Conservative members are or what motivates them to get involved in partisan politics. But multiple sources who spoke to Global News said a significant portion could be called “freedom” voters, drawn to Poilievre’s anti-establishment narrative. This is where the socons see their “opportunity”.

Social Conservatives are an influential and historically well-organized tribe within the Conservative Party, and their members have had influence in the choice of the last two leaders.

In 2017, the social conservatives put Andrew Scheer on top after their favorite standard bearers – Pierre Lemieux and Brad Trost – were knocked out of the party leadership race by ranked ballot.

In 2020, Erin O’Toole actively courted Socon votes in her successful attempt to upset Peter MacKay, who had branded conservative social issues a “stinky albatross” around Scheer’s neck in the 2019 general election.

The comment became MacKay’s own albatross in a race he was widely expected to win.

But that was when the party had about 260,000 members. Now that it has reached an unprecedented membership of 678,708, will the influence of social conservatives in the leadership be diminished?

“I think (it’s) an interesting opportunity,” Scott Hayward, co-founder of anti-abortion group Right Now, said in a recent interview with Global News.

Although Poilievre’s perceived frontrunner is not a social conservative, Hayward said many of his supporters might be open to social conservative principles — and they might support social conservative candidates in nomination contests or candidates for the national party council.

“It’s not hard to find common ground and get people on board,” Hayward said.

In the 2022 leadership race, only Leslyn Lewis – the MP for Haldimand-Norfolk who finished third in the 2020 contest – has the unqualified endorsement of Campaign Life Coalition, a prominent anti-abortion group long involved in the Conservative party.

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The CLC called the remaining candidates, including front-runner Pierre Poilievre, “pro-abortion” and urged its members to give Lewis their top pick and refuse to make downvote picks.

Jack Fonseca, director of political operations at the CLC, said the group believes it has registered at least 45,000 eligible Conservative members to vote in the September 10 contest, and claimed that was a “conservative” estimate. .

Fonseca also noted some overlap between people drawn to Poilievre’s banner and conservative social causes.

“Many of them were brought in because of their support for the freedom movement and the Freedom Convoy,” Fonseca said, referring to the protest movement that has crippled downtown Ottawa and several Canada-Canada border crossings. Americans in February.

Fonseca said he himself had attended the Ottawa protests twice and that while many of the convoy members did not necessarily identify as “pro-life,” they were sympathetic to the CLC position. .

“So I don’t think anything has changed. I think the party makeup at 675,000 versus 200,000 or 250,0000 before is still the same, in terms of the conservative social makeup of pro-life, pro-family and pro-religion people,” Fonseca said.

Social conservatives are often portrayed as single-issue voters, with the abortion issue overwhelming everything else. But a senior Conservative campaign source told Global News they see a significant overlap between Socon policy goals and what they call the “freedom” voter attracted to Poilievre’s campaign.

A second source, who has direct knowledge of the current list of party members eligible to vote in the Sept. 10 contest, said they believe a significant number of social conservatives intended to support Poilievre’s candidacy despite the opposition from “social conservative elites”. The two sources agreed to discuss internal party matters on the condition that they not be named.

“We’re talking about shared concerns,” the first source said, referring to the overlap between conservative social issues and the so-called “freedom” voter.

Poilievre largely avoided talking about Tory social issues during the race, and a campaign source suggested they had signed so many new members – more than 311,000, according to the campaign – the MP for Carleton would be less beholden than the leaders precedents to any internal factions.

A key indication of the strength of the social-conservative movement will be Lewis’ place on September 10. Some of her supporters, including Fonseca, are hoping for victory but suggest she could realistically finish second behind Poilievre – and ahead of former Quebec Premier Jean Charest.

Even a solid third-place finish would be a statement about the priorities of the new conservative base — and the power of the social conservatives within it.

“For the Conservative Party to win the next election, it will need to be committed and have an enthusiastic, ready-to-go base of support that includes social-conservative members, volunteers and donors across the country,” said Steve Outhouse. , a veteran Conservative campaigner who again manages Lewis’s campaign.

“We have seen a great turnout from the conservative social community in this leadership race. And I believe that we will continue to see this go forward and it will continue to be part of the conservative movement.