Senate polls on average 17 days to Election Day indicate Republicans could win majority

Polling averages and voting patterns point to an increase in Republican support in Senate races as the midterm elections approach.

RealClearPolitics predicts the GOP is on track to reverse the Senate races in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, though its polling average shows Democrat Raphael Warnock leading Republican Herschel Walker in Georgia.

On Monday, the New York Times/Siena College’s last poll showed Republicans a four-point lead, 49% to 45%, over Democrats when voters were asked who they preferred to represent them in Congress. Just last month, the September Times/Siena poll had Democrats with a one-point advantage over Republicans.

NY VOTERS PUT CRIME BEFORE INFLATION IN MIDTERM ELECTION, RAISING ZELDIN TO LESS THAN 4 POINTS OF HOCHUL

Polls for the 2022 generic Congressional vote – a closely watched indicator of midterm performance – show the average advantage of Democrats over Republicans peaking in mid-September with a 1.3% lead, an advantage decent given that Biden’s approval rating has consistently hovered in the 40s.

FiveThirtyEight’s analysis of election data updated on Saturday has put the Senate race at an impasse.

WISCONSIN VOTERS SAY INFLATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ARE AMONG THEIR VOTING PRIORITIES BEFORE MID-QUARTER

The The Senate is currently split 50-50 between the two major parties, but the Democrats control the majority, thanks to the decisive vote of Vice President Kamala Harris.

That means the GOP needs a net gain of just one seat to regain the majority it lost when it was swept in the Jan. 5, 2021, Senate double-round in Georgia.

GEORGIA’S SENATE CANDIDATES FACE OFF ON THE DEBATE STAGE IN THEIR ONLY HEAD-TO-HEAD BEFORE MID-TERM

Left to right: John Fetterman, Democratic Senate candidate from Pennsylvania, Mehmet Oz, Republican Senate candidate from Pennsylvania, Raphael Warnock, Democratic Senate candidate from Georgia, and Herschel Walker, Republican Senate candidate from Georgia.
(Hannah Beier/Bloomberg, Mark Makela, Elijah Nouvelage, Megan Varner via Getty Images)

Republicans are defending 21 of the 35 seats up for grabs in November, including five seats held by Republican incumbents. And three of those open seats are in the general election battlegrounds of Pennsylvania and North Carolina and in the competitive state of Ohio.

Meanwhile, Republicans are edging their way to victory in the House with gains on the West Coast, even as avenues remain for Democrats to stay in power.

GEORGIA’S SENATE CANDIDATES FACE OFF ON THE DEBATE STAGE IN THEIR ONLY HEAD-TO-HEAD BEFORE MID-TERM

North Carolina Senate candidates Cheri Beasley, a Democrat, and Ted Budd, a Republican.
(Allison Lee Isley for The Washington Post, Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

The latest forecast shows Republicans winning 232 seats, a 15-seat majority. Democrats would take the remaining 203 seats. That’s a small shift in favor of the GOP from the previous forecast.

Notably, if Republicans have a good night’s sleep in November (in other words, if they win all of the most competitive House races), the party would win 248 seats, or a 31-seat majority.

Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser and Sophia Slacik contributed to this report.