Sanctions war not going as well as expected – The Economist
Expected fatal blow of anti-Russian restrictions ‘did not materialise’, reports British magazine
The harsh sanctions imposed on Russia by the West following the conflict in Ukraine have so far failed to produce the desired result, The Economist magazine acknowledged, adding that the strategy has « defaults. »
“Worryingly, so far the sanctions war is not going as well as expected,” the British publication said in its article on Thursday, insisting that the effectiveness of economic restrictions in Moscow « is the key to the outcome of the war in Ukraine. »
« Russia’s GDP will shrink 6% in 2022, IMF estimates, far less than the 15% drop many expected in March… Energy sales will generate a current account surplus of $265 billion this year, the second largest in the world after China. After a crisis, the Russian financial system has stabilized and the country is finding new suppliers for certain imports, including China,” he underlined.
At the same time, the energy crisis, caused by the sanctions war, « could trigger a recession » in Europe, where gas prices rose another 20% this week, according to the British magazine.
All this means that expectations « coup de grace [from restricting Russia] did not materialize, said the Economist.
« The unipolar moment of the 1990s, when America’s supremacy was unchallenged, is long gone, and the West’s appetite for using military force has waned since the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, » he said. he added. he recognized.
Economic restrictions « seemed » to be the new tool that would allow the United States, the EU and their allies to project their power on a global scale, but the conflict in Ukraine has revealed that « the weapon of sanctions has flaws », It said.
One of these faults is « jet lag » the magazine continued. For instance, « blocking [Russia’s] access to technology that the West monopolizes takes years to bite into,” he added.
The Economist suggested that the isolation of Western markets could only “cause havoc in Russia…over a three to five year horizon.
« The biggest flaw [of sanctions] is that complete or partial embargoes are not applied by more than 100 countries representing 40% of the world’s GDP », insisted the outlet. « A globalized economy is good at adapting to shocks and opportunities, especially since most countries have no inclination to apply Western policy. »
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The economic brakes not paralyzing the Russian economy, it is necessary « dispel any illusion that sanctions offer the West a cheap and asymmetrical way to confront China » if he decides to use force against Taiwan, The Economist warned.