Yet, on the cusp of another potential race, some of the same questions and dynamics surround Trump as the first time around, including whether he’ll actually take the plunge or just tease, and how much his support apparent is strong and durable.
These doubts are perhaps another sign of wishful thinking on the part of people who are hoping Trump fails to launch or walk away, just like when he was about to walk down the famous escalator. It is certainly the case, however, that Trump is now in his weakest position since 2015 or the first part of 2016 – when, of course, he won the nomination, although it was not as inevitable as it appeared retrospectively. .
First, there is the question of whether Trump will run. In 2015, there was a lot of doubt that he would. He had talked about it so much before. And would he really want to go through the pace of disclosing his finances? This time there are fewer doubts. Still, there is a school of thought that believes he hasn’t really made up his mind to run and that he might stop if conditions don’t seem right or he doesn’t feel up to it for a race. another reason.
Trump always draws large crowds. In 2015, when the Trump rally first became a thing, some commentators dismissed the scale of its events. Candidates who were huge draws before – think Ron Paul in 2008 and 2012 – ultimately amounted to little. In 2015 and 2016, these pundits thought people might show up for entertainment or to see what the fuss was all about. Their presence, according to this thought, did not mean that they would caucus or vote for Trump when the pressure came.
This, we now know, was patently false. Trump’s rallies showed a passion and commitment from his supporters that no other candidate could match and were hugely important. As much as anything, the rallies were a metonym for the larger Trump phenomenon.
And now? Well, there is still a doubt about the gatherings. Are they the redoubt of diehards who are running in considerable numbers but who are also a relatively small number of Republican voters? Are they an echo of the past rather than a sign of future vitality? Ann Coulter, a right-wing pundit and now outspoken anti-Trump, plays down the events on the grounds that Sarah Palin could still draw a crowd even though her influence waned after the 2008 loss to Barack Obama: “In case you don’t You wouldn’t remember, for three years after that loss, Palin filled stadiums with tens of thousands of Trump-like fans.
Trump’s poll also looks solid, though there should be some skepticism about that as well. When he first emerged leading the polls in 2015, it was easy to believe he was another of those unserious Republican candidates who momentarily capture voters’ imaginations before falling back into the pack.
This, again, turned out to be completely wrong. And the ballot now?
Trump has had a monstrous 30 or 40 point lead in national polls over potential competitors, but a recent USA TODAY/Suffolk poll put him just 9 points over Ron DeSantis nationally. The Florida governor isn’t exactly closing the gap in the average — Trump is up 2-1.50 to 24% — but a national survey that moved Trump up less than 10 points is a blast from the past.
Almost exactly seven years ago, in early August 2015, Trump led the pack by a margin of about 2 to 1, 24% for Trump versus 13% for Jeb Bush. Most individual polls had it in the double digits nationally during this period, but some only had it in the single digits. That will hold true until he gets the nomination in the spring of 2016.
Or consider Florida. A few polls over the past two weeks have DeSantis beating Trump in Florida. Needless to say, this is very fertile ground for the Home State Governor. But it is still a notable result. According to the RealClearPolitics recap of Florida primary polls in the 2016 race, Trump hasn’t lost to another Sunshine State Republican since July 2015, a long time ago when another native son, Jeb Bush, was leading in Florida.
Perhaps Trump’s slowing numbers are part of an inexorable trend. Maybe just a minor downdraft that will quickly reverse if he runs for president. Who can know?
There are other echoes of 2015. There is derision directed at the very small team of Trump loyalists who would form the core of his campaign – just like the first time around.
There is a very strong possibility that if Trump ran for the nomination and lost, he would try to poison the chalice – the reason for the “loyalty pledge” orchestrated by Reince Priebus in 2015.
Trump benefited in his first race from a multi-candidate field that divided his opposition. At the same time, no one really knew how to handle it, and many contestants spent time dodging and covering. It could be the same in 2024.
The biggest difference from Trump’s first run is that he is now President of the United States. He has shown that he can win a presidential race (and, it must be added, lose one).
Rather than an outsider who should be grateful for every little crumb of Republican administration support, Trump owns the RNC, has elected officials he approves of — from governor to dogcatcher — scattered across the landscape, has a pending government in the form of various “America First” entities and is generously funded. This time around, Trump will have his own establishment — a MAGA establishment that he and his loyalists have shaped in recent years — behind his back.
That will make him, in effect, the establishment favorite in the race – assuming he actually races.
It is a formidable position, although history shows that it is not necessarily impregnable.
If people are basically looking for something else, all the names of identities, money and support from elected officials will mean nothing. Trump will also struggle to look as fresh as he did from the start as he approaches a decade at the top of national politics. And his obsession with 2020 inevitably means looking back. These are the types of traps that can lead to leading campaigns.
In short, 2015 means Trump 3.0 is not to be taken lightly or dismissed lightly. It also means, again, that there are potential flaws in his armor.
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