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Premier League odds, predictions, picks: Brighton, Tottenham


There are just two full matchdays left in the English Premier League’s 2021-22 campaign, but there are still plenty of intriguing stories left.

None are bigger than the respective pursuits for the title and the final Champions League position. Going into the weekend, Manchester City have a three-point advantage over Liverpool at the top, while Tottenham are just one point behind rivals Arsenal for fourth place.

With that established, let’s now turn our attention to the best bets for the weekend – a side and a moneyline parlay that I believe offer the most value.

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Premier League odds, predictions, picks: Brighton, Tottenham

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Premier League odds, predictions, picks: Brighton, Tottenham

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Premier League odds, predictions, picks: Brighton, Tottenham

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Premier League odds, predictions, picks: Brighton, Tottenham

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Premier League odds, predictions, picks: Brighton, Tottenham

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Pick No.1 – Brighton & Hove Albion Draw, No Bet (-115) v Leeds United

Odds via BetMGM

Leeds United are in the midst of a relegation fight while Brighton are comfortably mid-table, but we personally rate the Seagulls higher.

Manager Graham Potter’s side have dropped all three points just once in their last seven matches and have won five of their last six against non-Manchester City opponents on expected goals. Moreover, in those same six matches against teams not named Manchester City, Brighton created 1.8 expected goals per 90 minutes and their defense kept all but one team (Arsenal) under an expected goal.

It was also a Brighton team that dominated the second leg against Leeds. Although the final score was 0-0, Brighton won the game on expected goals 2.59-0.9 and created two great chances to score from zero for the Leeds attack, according to fotmob.com.

It also marks the third straight win on expected goals for Brighton against Leeds, who have surrendered at least 1.3 expected goals in all three meetings against the Seagulls.

Premier League odds, predictions, picks: Brighton, Tottenham
Brighton & Hove Albion’s Joel Veltman (right) during the Premier League game between Brighton & Hove Albion and Tottenham Hotspur
CameraSport via Getty Images

Given that Leeds will be without a key player in defender Luke Ayling (suspension), I have little faith in a Leeds defense that has conceded 1.38xG/90mins in their last five against non-top opponents. four will contain this Brighton attack.

For these reasons I would play Brighton’s draw, no bet line down to -130.

Pick No. 2 – Moneyline Parlay: Tottenham and Manchester City (-117)

Odds via BetMGM

Sometimes the obvious games can be the best and I think that’s definitely the case here.

We’ll start with Tottenham, who with a win would edge ahead of Arsenal before the Gunners play on Monday. His match against Burnley at home promises to be a good point of revenge in Tottenham’s favorite venue. At Turf Moor, Tottenham lost 1-0 and 1.55-0.96 on expected goals, according to fotmob.com.

But before that result, Spurs have won three games in a row and four of the last five against the Clarets, who find themselves just outside the relegation zone on goal difference. Moreover, although Burnley are 0-3-2 (WLD) in the Big Six this season, they have lost all five games by at least 0.8 goals expected.


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As for Manchester City, they come to their game against West Ham United in world-class form. The Cityzens have won five consecutive games by three goals and have seen only one of those five teams hold under the expected 2.75 goals.

He also topped the reverse game at the Etihad against the Hammers, winning 2-1 and 2.43-0.22 on expected goals. He also generated four big goalscoring chances for West Ham.

Although manager David Moyes’ side will try to stay in the Europa League berth, City will be too strong for that, even at home.


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