Predictions, choices with Luca Fury
International Fight Week with bang here at The Post! MMA betting has been as successful and reliable as any you will see on the internet.
Last week we come off of one of our best weeks of the year. Since March, UFC straight betting is 17-7 on the year (very proud of that record) and backers profit 31.64 units overall. Today we welcome a special guest.
MMA fans know him from Sherdog.com and others know him from various social media and podcasts. Luca Fury has long been considered one of the best MMA betting minds in the space and this fight card is so deep it deserves additional opinions.
With this, you will be able to watch selected excerpts from our video interview below! We crashed this year, keep it up
If you’re a fan of Luca, be sure to follow his podcast and content on Patreon and Spotify.
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UFC 276 Predictions
Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier
Both videos will give you a ton of advanced strategy information that will discuss the technical differences between these two fighters. Middleweight champion Israel Adesanya is at his physical peak, while Jared Cannonier is 37 in his first title fight,
While Cannonier was fighting at heavyweight, he would still have the size and hit a disadvantage against Adesanya. Had Cannonier shown some serious offensive wrestling chops, that would go a long way for a potential challenger flier.
Unfortunately, none of these things is the case. Apparently, Cannonier’s only path to victory is to get in close and land some big shots. With Adesanya’s length, speed and technical advantage at stake; it’s a nightmare for Cannonier. Save your long-term underdog bets for another time.
UFC 276 Picks
Israel Adesanya by KO/TKO in rounds two, three, four +360 (FanDuel)
Lucas: -550 too high, pass.
Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya next?
Some quick analysis on the middleweight division that has been absolutely dominated by Adesanya. He fought Alex Pereira as a kickboxer. Pereira knocked out Adesanya in one of those fights, he even taunted him afterwards. The rivalry could lead to a very intriguing contest in the future.
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway
Featherweight Champion, Alexander Volkanovski sat down with The Post’s Scott Fontanan to discuss the trilogy fight with Max Holloway. I highly recommend you read it before betting on the fight to help you get a glimpse into the mind of the 2-0 champion.
This is where we really got into the thick of it. To be fair, Luca was a bit more bullish on Max Holloway than I was in this trilogy fight. However, his arguments influenced me a little.
After watching the fight for the third time, the highlights of an extremely close fight, essentially a coin toss, going to -200/+150 look ridiculous. At worst, it’s fair to have Volkanovski as a -130 favorite but not much higher than that.
As steam comes to the favorite, the value continues to climb towards Holloway. Holloway has size and a striking advantage in this fight. The concerns of Volkanovski’s fight against the challenger are legitimate. However, Holloway should be extremely difficult to take down early on.
Overall, Fury is right that this fight is a dog or pass situation. See parts one and two below to get into the finer details of the fight. For now, a parlay builder is this fight to go to a decision and a flyer on Holloway on the moneyline as high as +168 at the time of writing.
UFC 276 Picks
Fight goes all the way -225 (BetMGM)
Lucas: Max Holloway moneyline +168 — (FanDuel), Fight goes the distance (-225)
Sean O’Malley vs. Pedro Munhoz
The Suga’ Show returns this weekend in the biggest event of its career! Veteran Pedro Munhoz challenges knockout artist and loud « Suga » Sean O’Malley.
Fury is generally correct (video below) in his assessment of O’Malley who is a heavy favorite. In all likelihood, O’Malley won’t be challenging for a future title in this loaded bantamweight division that includes Umar Nurmagomedov, Petr Yan and Cory Sandhagen.
However, O’Malley is a worthy favorite this weekend and an impressive striker. As a consensus -300 favorite, O’Malley shouldn’t be anyone’s bet. Instead, watch the first round and see how it goes.
If Munhoz lands clean kicks, feel free to shoot the veteran at odds of +200 or better. He never finished his UFC career, so O’Malley will have to show some impressive power to do the unreleased Munhoz and knockout.
UFC 276 Picks
Follow live betting strategy during round 1
UFC 276 Parade (+844)
Stickland/Pereira goes the distance +146 + Jalin Turner ML (-148), Barbarena ML (-110), Adesanya ML (-500)
- Fury does not recommend parlay bets, these are primarily for fun and to take advantage of available promotions.