Power Rankings Eliminator: Use the Packers or Broncos in Week 6

ESPN Eliminator Challenge is one of the most fun games to play this NFL season. The rules are simple: choose a team, and as long as they win (or tie), you move on to the next round. If they lose, you’re out. The caveat is that you cannot choose the same team twice. If you’ve made it this far, congratulate yourself.

Week 5 finally showcased the chaos that Eliminator Challenge is generally known for. Three of the five biggest favorites lost last week, making it the first time since 2015 that three underdogs by at least 7 points have lost outright. The Arizona Cardinals were the popular pick last week, and they blew a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter, made more possible by Emari Demercado’s early celebration just before going for a touchdown, which resulted in a fumble out of the end zone.

The Cardinals were also the top pick in this column last week. However, since this column was using the Cardinals in Week 2, we turned to the Detroit Lions, one of the few heavy favorites to actually win.

In total, there were nine upsets in Week 5, the most since 2022. These upsets eliminated more than half of the remaining entries in Eliminator Challenge, the most eliminations in any one week this season.

Heading into Week 6, there’s one obvious selection: the Green Bay Packers hosting the Cincinnati Bengals. The Packers are the second favorite all season. That will likely make them the more popular pick, but unlike the Buffalo Bills two weeks ago, there’s less incentive to save the Packers for later.

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Mike Clay’s Eliminator Challenge Cheat Sheet

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This was the second most lopsided game of the rest of the season according to ESPN Analytics. While the Packers have two future matchups that stand out in Week 9 (vs. the Panthers) and Week 11 (vs. the Giants), they are significantly bigger favorites this week, especially according to Mike Clay’s model. Clay gives the Packers a 91% chance of winning this week, compared to 69% and 68% chances against the Panthers and Giants, respectively. While it will be nice for the Packers to save during these weeks, it’s hard to find a better place for the Packers than at home against one of the worst teams on paper. Just expect them to be more popular in higher stakes competitions than they are on Tuesday (21%).

• Mike Clay chance of winning: 91%

• Chance of winning ESPN Analytics: 81%

• ESPN BET Line: Packers -14.5 (-1600 money line)

• Eliminator Challenge: 21% selected

That’s tied for the second-most lopsided spread of the week, as the Jets are the only winless team remaining in the NFL this season. The big decision with Denver is what week do you want to use them? They host the Giants next week, the Cowboys in Week 8, and face the Raiders in Weeks 10 and 14. The Broncos are a good pick this week, but they have similar future value to Green Bay, except they are much smaller favorites to win this week.

• Mike Clay chance of winning: 86%

• Chance of winning ESPN Analytics: 71%

• ESPN BET Line: Broncos -7.5 (-400 money line)

• Eliminator Challenge: 17% selected

This is the third-easiest game remaining for the Eagles on paper behind only Week 8 (home vs. the Giants) and Week 15 (home vs. the Raiders), so they’re another solid option even in a divisional road game. However, after playing in the toughest force on the schedule so far according to ESPN Analytics, they have barely been picked in most competitions, so they are ahead. If you already used the Colts, lean towards saving the Eagles, as these two teams appear to be the two best options for Week 8.

• Mike Clay chance of winning: 78%

• Chance of winning ESPN Analytics: 75%

• ESPN BET Line: Eagles -6.5 (-380 money line)

• Eliminator Challenge: 25% selected

Mike Clay’s model leads the Colts, putting them tied for third among the week’s favorites. This is the Colts’ second-easiest remaining game of the season behind Week 8 (home vs. the Titans), so if you’ve already used the Eagles, lean toward saving the Colts. Indianapolis is top 5 in the NFL in offensive and defensive EPA per play, so the Colts have played just as well as their 4-1 record would indicate. A home game against the Cardinals with a likely weak selection is an attractive choice.

• Mike Clay chance of winning: 78%

• Chance of winning ESPN Analytics: 65%

• ESPN BET Line: Colts -6.5 (-320 money line)

• Eliminator Challenge: 2% selected

The models don’t like the Steelers as much as the teams ahead of them on this list. However, historical trends like Pittsburgh to this location. The Steelers have won 21 straight home games against the Browns, the second-longest such winning streak in NFL history. They have also won eight straight games after a bye week, the second-longest active streak in the NFL. Ultimately, they fall to number five due to their future value. They have two more games against the Bengals (Weeks 7 and 11), as well as a home game against the Dolphins in December (Week 15).

• Mike Clay chance of winning: 72%

• Chance of winning ESPN Analytics: 64%

• ESPN BET Line: Steelers -5.5 (-270 money line)

• Eliminator Challenge: 11% selected

The Rams are tied for second favorite this week based on betting odds. However, the models from Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics are weak on the Rams relative to the odds. Los Angeles is only selected in 1% of entries Tuesday night, so if that holds, the Rams become more attractive. But once Lamar Jackson is officially ruled out, expect more players to select the Rams, which is enough to swing to one of the other options on this list.

• Mike Clay chance of winning: 62%

• Chance of winning ESPN Analytics: 58%

• ESPN BET Line: Rams -7.5 (-400 money line)

• Eliminator Challenge: 1% selected

Official choices:

Projected path