Kiley McDaniel
In case you have not heard, Aaron Judge entered the MLB 2025 MLB qualifiers with a storage story of October compared to his regular season curriculum vitae.
For his career, judge operations are 250 points down in the playoffs only in the regular season (the average deposit of OPS of the regular season for the strikers in 2024 was 18 points), and his difficulties on the biggest scene became a subject of discussion almost in October.
After its bar line line. But he does not strike for a lot of power, with a single additional blow (a double) in 21 appearances of plates, and his team between 3 of the American league division series on the verge of elimination.
While the Yankees try to fight against the Blue Jays of Toronto, we have widely dug in each of the first 18 strikers of the judge (and three walks) to see what we can learn about his October so far.
How is the judge presented in the playoffs? Is it different from the regular season? Why does he not strike for power? Is it bad luck? And where could his playoffs go from here – if the Yankees can stay long enough for him to find his Home Run?
How left -handed launchers are approaching the judge
Judge vs Lefties in Playoff Career: 42 PA, .400 / .500 / .714, 19% K, 17% BB, 3 hours
Judge vs lefties in the playoffs: 8 PA, .500 / .500 / 1.125, 13% K, 0% BB, 0 HR
Each launcher has different forces, but there are clear trends that the left-handers follow during the attack on the judge this month.
The match plan looks like this: throwing hard stuff (fast four seams, lead, cutters) on his hands, largely down, then mix more soft stuff to keep it honest, locating these grounds down and in the corners – where it is the least likely to do damage. If you miss, miss the area, not towards the middle. Do not be afraid to nibble the outside of the area and to live to fight another day.
It is a solid plan against almost all strikers, but in this case, it means going hard inside against a 7 -inch 6 -inch coupur whose relative weaknesses will always understand the cover of the plate against good things.
It is revealing that the two softer leftists faced (Boston’s Connelly early and Justin Bruihl de Toronto) threw two fast balls of their 10 throws in total and both missed the plate inside, a missing so far inside that he struck the judge. Garrett Crochet, Aroldis Chapman and Brendon Little were much more aggressive, probably because of their best fast balls.
How right -handed launchers are approaching the judge
Judge vs Righties in Playoff Career: 241 PA, .192 / .304 / .409, 34% K, 13% BB, 13 hours
Judge vs Righties in the playoffs: 13 PA, .400 / .538 / .400, 23% K, 15% bb, 0 hr
The judge faced eight different right -handers in the playoffs, and these launchers vary considerably in their mixture of pitch and the quality of their business, but the right -handers seem to use a decision tree to develop their match plan against him.
If the step of the upper speed of the right -hander is a rupture ball (cursor, sweeper, curve), it launches that as often as possible while locating it – and mixing it with fast bullets inside to prevent the judge from looking into the plate. Here is an overview that of the judge against the balls that break only.
If the best secondary land of right -handed is a separator – like Kevin Gausman from Toronto and Trey YesAvnium in the first two games of the ALDS – then he mixes separators and sliders with fast balls which are mainly targeted inside.
But whatever their style, a common goal for all these launchers is not to make a mistake on the plate!
How is the history of the regular season of the judge possible in this plan?
Although Judge’s October difficulties have become a story of his career, any team sets up their pitch strategy for a Will Game Plan series for the US Ligue Double MVP with a career of 1.028 OPS and 368 circuits rather than treating it as the player with an average of 0.223 and 0.787 OPS in 63 career games.
And it starts by keeping the ball away from where the judge can do the most damage.
During the regular season of 2025, the judge faced 176 throws (essentially a spear of all four plaques appearances) which qualified as in the average zone of the environment – or, in addition, in the middle.
Against these locations, the judge had a 1,630 ops and 15 circuits, the two figures were the second best in baseball.
It was there that the judge ranked, among all the thickers qualified in MLB this season, measured by Xwoba:
Second Best VS High Intermediaries
Best vs heights in the heart of the area (a larger part of the striking area than the average environment)
Best per field vs fast balls, second in global value
Best by land and overall vs Plinkers
Best by land and global vs cutters
Imagine getting this screening report as a launcher before facing a judge in an eliminatory match. I wouldn’t throw him in the middle either.
How the judge manages the locations he should crush
Now for the torsion: the judge has faced seven throws in the playoffs which were in the middle zone of the middle (a launch every three plaques appearances, so slightly more frequently than the regular season).
Until now, this qualifying series, the judge has not put one of these locations at stake. He swung at five years – defeated four and a rotary to another – and has taken two medium grounds for the strikes.
This is not a trend that I tried to identify in my research because the small sample means that a circuit stroke on a central cutting ball would make him a hole, but by looking at all his bats in the playoffs, I did too much of this kind of note: “The target was (direction of the area), Target missed in the middle of the area, (nothing wrong happened to the launcher).”
So, yes, it’s a small sample, but October baseball is won and lost for small samples. The judge launches roughly how he was in the regular season (in fact even a little more suitable for strikers), but he did not reproduce his regular season damage, especially when it comes to punishing errors launched in the middle. The judge played essentially the same (rate of prosecution, xwoba, etc.) that the regular season against non -compliant locations, so not to take advantage of these errors is his decrease in power in the playoffs this year.
More than 162 games, anyone who sets up an OPS of more than 1,000 has a very productive season – even if everything comes from simple and some doubles – but the heat has been revealed with the Yankees confronted with elimination, and the offense must issue, with the judge at the heart of it. This team needs to judge to punish errors and create memories where it may have another disappointment in October to its curriculum vitae.
