Paris Agreement on global warming: countries’ commitments are « very far » from meeting the 1.5°C target, according to UN Climate.

New warning less than two weeks from COP27: the commitments of the signatory countries of the Paris agreement are still « very far » from what it would take to hope to meet the objectives of the fight against global warming.

Far from limiting the rise in temperatures to 1.5°C or 2°C, the two flagship targets of the treaty, the greenhouse gas emission reduction plans of 193 signatory parties “could put the world on the path to ‘a warming of 2.5°C by the end of the century,’ warns the UN climate agency in its latest summary of the commitments received.

And this, even though with nearly 1.2°C of warming, the world is already facing the devastating impacts of climate change, as illustrated by the catastrophic procession of floods, heat waves, droughts or megafires that marked the year 2022.

At the last global climate conference, COP26, held a year ago in Glasgow, countries pledged to increase their « Nationally Determined Contributions » (NDCs) each year, instead of all five years as provided for in the agreement signed in 2015.

Towards an increase in emissions

But only 24 countries had submitted a new or strengthened NDC by September 23, the deadline for them to be considered before the new conference, which will be held from November 6 to 18 in the Egyptian city of Sharm el-Sheikh. A « disappointing » figure, acknowledged the head of the UN Climate, Simon Stiell.

« We are very far from the level and the speed of emission reductions necessary to put us on the path to a world of +1.5°C », he underlined in a written commentary on this summary. “To maintain this objective [de 1,5 °C] alive, governments must strengthen their plans now and implement them in the next eight years,” he insisted.

Because according to UN experts, global emissions must fall by 45% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels, to meet this objective, set in relation to the average temperatures of the pre-industrial era, when humanity began to use fossil fuels massively, producing greenhouse gases that cause global warming.

Very far from the new synthesis of the NDCs, according to which the current commitments would on the contrary lead to a 10.6% increase in emissions over the same period.

A glimmer of hope all the same, very late, they would allow a reduction in emissions after 2030, which was not the case last year.

« Many » of « uncertain » and not very concrete plans

In a separate study on long-term strategies towards « carbon neutrality » published on Wednesday, the UN Climate calculates that the emissions of countries that have adopted such plans could fall by around 68%, if they are actually implemented. . But he immediately warns that “many” of these plans are “uncertain” and without concrete application.

“COP27 is an opportunity for world leaders to reinvigorate the fight against climate change,” Mr. Stiell continued, calling for actions that “reflect the urgency, the seriousness of the threats and the short time available to us. remains to avoid the devastating consequences of runaway climate change”.

According to Egypt, « more than 90 » world leaders are expected to attend the summit to be held in the early days of the conference.

The latest report from UN climate experts (IPCC), released in 2021-2022, highlighted how little time remains to ensure a “livable future” for humanity. But scientists point out that every fraction of a degree of warming avoided counts and that action must therefore be taken.

» The report [sur les NDC] and that of the IPCC are useful reminders,” said Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Choukri, who will chair COP27, in a statement on Wednesday. “It is essential to raise ambitions and urgently implement them […] to protect us from severe climate impacts and devastating loss and damage,” he stressed.

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