North Korea marks end of first wave of COVID, but risks linger

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SEOUL — North Korea said Friday that all of its fever patients had recovered, marking the end of its first wave of the coronavirus pandemic, but challenges persist with worsening economic hardship and an unvaccinated population exposed. to future resurgences, analysts said.

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While state media said “the anti-epidemic situation…has entered a phase of definite stability”, rather than boasting of victory, North Korea said it would “double its efforts to maintain perfection in the execution of the anti-epidemic policies of the State”.

The reclusive country has never confirmed how many people have caught COVID-19, apparently running out of testing supplies. But he said about 4.77 million fever patients have fully recovered and 74 have died since late April. It has not reported any new cases of fever since July 30.

South Korean officials and medical experts have cast doubt on those numbers, especially the number of deaths.

Shin Young-jeon, a professor at Hanyang University School of Medicine in Seoul, said that while the peak of the first wave of COVID may have passed, reported deaths were nearly “impossible” and there could be up to 50,000 deaths.

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“Their success, if any, should lie in the fact that the epidemic has not led to political or social chaos. Whether their COVID response was successful was another issue.

South Korea’s Unification Minister Kwon Young-se, head of inter-Korean affairs, said this week that there were “credibility issues” with the data from the North, but the COVID situation seemed “somewhat little under control”.

In a sign of easing the outbreaks, the ruling Workers’ Party held a big mask-free event in late July, inviting hundreds of Korean War veterans.

The national soccer league kicked off its season this week after a three-year hiatus, state media reported, as did swimming, yachting and bowling competitions.

Most matches appeared to be held without spectators, but a photo of a taekwondo match released Monday by the official Rodong Sinmun newspaper showed an audience wearing masks and seated apart.

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Some analysts say economic, food security and public health challenges remain and could be further exacerbated if infections re-emerge as seen in Asian neighbors amid a spread of the subvariants of ‘Omicron.

Yet leader Kim Jong Un has yet to lift strict restrictions on movement, and the Chinese border remains closed, with no officials traveling overseas and no diplomatic missions in Pyongyang vacant.

“Despite the weak medical infrastructure, every North Korean community has a designated doctor, and the strict controls and concerted responses of the socialist system could help uncover and isolate potential cases,” said Lim Eul-chul, professor of North Korean studies at Kyungnam University. in South Korea.

Cheong Seong-chang, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, said the outbreak in the North may be less severe than expected, as the fever cases made public could include a large number of other seasonal outbreaks.

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South Korea’s spy agency said in May that some waterborne diseases such as typhoid or cholera were already prevalent in the North before COVID hit.

Cho Han-bum, a senior fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul, said Kim may have decided to seek herd immunity in the face of worsening food shortages and worsening public sentiment due to the limitations.

Experts said the pandemic and a nationwide lockdown would worsen the North’s already dire food situation, and the World Health Organization said in June that the COVID situation there could worsen.

“The North might try to loosen restrictions to allow people to go out and eat, as food shortages would become severe and there would be more outbreaks,” Cho said.