In Sunday’s AFC Divisional Game, the Houston Texans will travel to Foxborough, Massachusetts to take on Mike Vrabel’s New England Patriots. With both teams coming off wild-card wins — and both boasting top-10 defenses — let’s take a closer look at personnel and anticipated game plans.
Matt Bowen breaks it down and offers his perspective, and Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody and Seth Walder share their best DFS bets, analysis and plays to help you get in on the action.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
When the Texans have the ball
Bowen: Along with Nico Collins (concussion), Christian Kirk, who had 144 yards receiving in the wild card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, Xavier Hutchinson and rookie Jayden Higgins will become targets for quarterback CJ Stroud. With a Houston rushing attack featuring Woody Marks and a zone-heavy approach, the Texans can mirror the passing game to set up play-action throws for Stroud, as they will need to generate explosive plays down the field.
Edge: Patriots
Best bet: Woody scores OVER 53.5 rushing yards (-110). Marks has rushed for at least 70 yards in two of his last three games, including 112 yards against Pittsburgh last week. I see a Texans offense that is going to focus on the running game.
When the Patriots have the ball
Bowen: Led by quarterback Drake Maye, the Patriots will need answers in man coverage and two-deep zone against a loaded Texas defense. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels can have Maye serve as a three-level ball distributor, while running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson have the dual-threat ability to make impact plays for this offense.
Edge: Texans
Best bet: Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 21.5 receiving yards (-112). Stevenson has 55 or more receiving yards in two of his last three games. He will be Maye’s check/outlet, and he will also be able to produce concepts on screen.
Staff Picks, Best Bets and Props
Patriots -3 (-120)
Maldonado: The Patriots have more ways to survive an ugly game. Houston’s defense is real, but the Texans are stretched thin and on the road. Asking CJ Stroud to play clean football without much margin is a big ask. The Patriots can take sacks, trade punts and find enough explosive plays to get separation late. As both teams struggle in the red zone, it comes down to field position, pressure and who makes the big mistake. This doesn’t favor Stroud on the road.
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 21.5 receiving yards (-112)
Moody: Stevenson has crossed that line in five straight games averaging 3.4 targets per game during that span. His role as receiver should help neutralize the Texans’ aggressive pass rush by giving Maye a reliable safety valve. Stevenson has also beaten that figure in four of his last five home games, strengthening the case for surpassing it.
Woody scores MORE than 1.5 receptions (-110)
Loza: Marks failed to convert his only goal in Pittsburgh last Monday night, but this week’s game is leaning in his favor. Although New England’s defense remained strong against the run, the team struggled to defend ball carriers through the air, allowing the fifth-most catches (an average of nearly five per game) during the regular season. Chargers backup RB Kimani Vidal recorded two catches in Foxborough last weekend. The bar here is low enough for Marks to clear.
Kyle Williams OVER 5.5 receiving yards (-108)
Moody: The Texans secondary has been excellent at containing opposing pass catchers, but it will be busy with Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry, which could open up opportunities for the rookie. Williams has proven to be a key playmaker for Maye and the Patriots this season, averaging 20.9 yards per reception, meaning he essentially only needs one catch to clear that line. He has the speed and route nuance needed to win down the field, and with Maye’s mobility, it’s easy to imagine this duo connecting at least once against Houston. Williams has erased that figure in six of her last 10 games.
Kayshon Boutte 80+ receiving yards (+720)
Walder: There’s one number that stands out about Boutte: 30% of his routes are either deep fades or go routes. This is by far the highest among all wide receivers with at least 300 routes, with the second highest being Quentin Johnston at 23%. As such, I’ve been trying to bet on Boutte’s alternate receiving yard lines all year. Did I only do it in the weeks he didn’t succeed? Of course. But why not try again?
Daily Fantasy Tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
1:23
Why Stephen A. doubts CJ Stroud can lead the Texans past the Patriots
Stephen A. Smith explains why the odds are stacked against CJ Stroud and the Texans ahead of their AFC Divisional Round game against the Patriots.
Loza’s recommendations
Captain (1.5x fantasy points score): Drake Maye ($16,800). The Texans defense is arguably the best in the league. But Maye’s versatile skillset makes him the most reliable points facilitator.
Also in my lineup: Andy Borregales ($7,500) closed the regular season with just one missed kick. He was perfect in the wild-card round, making all three field goal attempts and an extra point against the Chargers. Facing a Texans defense that limits scoring opportunities in what should be a low-scoring contest, Borregales’ leg plans to stay warm.
Maldonado’s recommendations
Captain (1.5x fantasy points score): Drake Maye ($16,800) creates fantasy points even as drives stall due to scrambles, broken plays and late-game urgency. Houston’s pressure will cause sacks, but Maye’s legs and aggression downfield will keep his ceiling intact.
Also in my lineup: CJ Stroud ($10,200). His route splits are ugly, but he still touches the ball at every turn and will be forced to throw it if Houston is trailing. Even inefficient volume counts in fantasy. Time wasted and passes in the second half keep it viable.
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