Natural Gas Futures Analysis Today: Sellers Regain Control Below 3.40 Resistance
Natural gas futures (ticker: NG) reversed sharply today after a failed early strong rally near the 3.40 level, an important area aligned with yesterday’s VWAP and earlier institutional activity. The session saw a classic rejection pattern, signaling that short-term sentiment has shifted back in favor of sellers.
Natural gas market context and technical setup
Early in the U.S. session, natural gas prices rose from around 3.32 to 3.39 as buyers pushed prices above the high in the developing value zone.
However, the rally lost momentum just as the price approached a dense resistance cluster between 3.39 and 3.40 — an area that combines:
Yesterday’s VWAPa key benchmark in which institutional traders often rebalance their positions.
The upper standard deviation of VWAPshowing tight short-term conditions.
Highs of overlapping value zones since the beginning of the weekmarking the pre-supply areas.
Once the price reaches this zone, aggressive sales hit the marketpushing the price below the checkpoint (POC) at 3:36 a.m.. This reversal indicated that buyers had lost the initiative and the value was falling during the session.
Intel analysis of orderFlow
Advanced data from OrderFlow Intel confirms a decisive intraday transition from bullish enthusiasm to bearish control.
At first, buyers dominated and easily raised prices, but this force quickly disappeared. Delta collapse happened – which means buying interest disappeared as sellers aggressively reached for supply.
Concretely, this shows that buyers stopped defending the market at lower pricesleaving the order book thin and vulnerable to an accelerated decline. Sellers then intervened with conviction, regaining control of short-term flow dynamics.
A brief rebound followed, probably due to Hedging short positions rather than new institutional purchasesas the trading volume was significantly lower than during the liquidation phase.
Price Action and Key Levels
The most decisive move came when the price reached 3,393just below the 3.40 magnetic zone. The market sold off heavily, closing below the POC.
If the weakness persists, the next areas for technical support are:
3.342: Today’s VWAP, which can serve as a first support.
3.324: The developing value area is weak.
A recovery above 3h40 would invalidate the immediate bearish bias and reopen the path towards 3.44, where previous value zone highs and VWAP levels align.
Intel orderFlow prediction score
Score: −6 (bearish bias)
The orderFlow Intel scale extends from −10 to +10Or:
−10 = extremely bearish dynamics and strong sales imbalance
0 = neutral and undecided order flow
+10 = extremely bullish momentum and strong buying imbalance
A reading of −6 reflects firm but not extreme seller controlconsistent with a reversal of resistance and a decline in buyer participation. Unless natural gas reclaims the 3.40 level with significant volume, the near-term bias remains bearish.
Natural Gas Trading Outlook
Resistance: 3,390–3,400 (VWAP confluence and sales zone)
Support: 3.342 (VWAP) and 3.324 (low developing value)
Bearish target range: 3,298-3,279 if momentum continues to decline
Cancelation: Sustained close above 3.40 with positive delta and volume expanding
Summary for Today’s Natural Gas Traders (Day and Swing!)
Today Natural Gas Futures Analysis highlights a clear rotation in sentiment as sellers re-emerged around the 3.40 resistance zone. The rejection pattern, confirmed by orderFlow Intel signals and declining buyer engagement, suggests a possible continuation towards lower value levels.
Although short-term rebounds are possible, the balance of data currently favors the bears until the price convincingly reclaims the 3.40 handle with renewed buying conviction.
None of this is financial advice. You should conduct your own research and trade at your own risk.
