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NASA detects asteroid 2024 YR4 on a possible collision course with the Moon (and scientists prepare for impact)

Ethan Davis by Ethan Davis
October 8, 2025
in Science & Environment
Reading Time: 5 mins read
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Table of Contents

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  • Telescopes have rewritten the odds
  • If the Moon takes the hit: danger averted, discovery unlocked
  • From exercise to dress rehearsal: how asteroid 2024 YR4 sharpened planetary defense
  • Potential Moon impact raises questions
IN A WORD
  • 🌕 NASA identifies a potential threat of a high-speed asteroid that could collide with the Moon.
  • Telescope observations have revolutionized how we perceive asteroid collisions and planetary defense strategies.
  • A collision with the Moon would create a spectacular crater but poses no risk to the Earth.
  • Asteroid 2024 YR4 offers a rare opportunity to test scientific theories on impacts and celestial behavior.

The Moon, our constant companion in the night sky, symbolizes stability. It has influenced poetry, calendars and even tides for billions of years. Yet recent updates from NASA suggest a potential threat that seems straight out of science fiction: a high-speed asteroid could collide with the Moon. This is not mere speculation; the data comes from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the implications are serious. For the first time in years, our nearest celestial neighbor is considered a target in official NASA calculations, raising questions about potential impacts on Earth and our understanding of space.

Telescopes have rewritten the odds

In today’s world, telescopes like Hubble and the James Webb Space Telescope have revolutionized our view of the universe. They reveal once-invisible phenomena, from the formation of galaxies to asteroids crossing Earth’s orbit. In May, JWST focused on a small moving dot that changed our understanding of potential space collisions. This point is identified as an asteroid 2024 YEAR 4a space rock measuring between 53 and 67 meters in diameter, comparable to a ten-story building.

When 2024 YR4 was discovered in late 2024, it caught scientists’ attention for another reason. Initially, it was calculated to have a 3.1% chance of colliding with Earth in 2032, the highest probability ever recorded for a large asteroid. While that 3.1 percent figure may seem modest, it was enough to trigger crisis simulations among scientists focused on planetary defense.

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If the Moon takes the hit: danger averted, discovery unlocked

What would happen if 2024 YR4 hit the Moon? According to astronomer Pawan Kumar, a former researcher at the Indian Institute of Astrophysics, the result would be a spectacular crater without posing a threat to Earth. “It will not be a cause for worry,” says Kumar. Any debris from the impact reaching near-Earth space would burn up as it enters our atmosphere.

Even if the Moon’s orbit remained unchanged, the collision could provide fascinating scientific opportunities. Astronomers could witness the creation of a fresh cratervisible through telescopes and perhaps even by amateur astronomers. The collision could also produce fragments cross the skypotentially leading to meteor showers. Such an event provides scientists with a rare opportunity to test their understanding of spatial impacts in real time, making it an invaluable natural experiment.

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From exercise to dress rehearsal: how asteroid 2024 YR4 sharpened planetary defense

Despite the lack of immediate danger, the discovery of 2024 YR4 was an invaluable exercise in planetary defense. This was a complete rehearsal, involving discovery, risk assessment, public communication and ongoing monitoring. NASA has experience with such scenarios; in 2022, the agency led the DART missionintentionally crashing a spacecraft into an asteroid to change its orbit. This mission demonstrated that asteroid deflection strategies are not just theoretical: they are feasible and effective.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 will become visible again in 2028allowing JWST and ground-based telescopes to study its composition and shape. Understanding these characteristics is crucial since an asteroid’s response to impacts depends on its density and structure. Although it is ruled out as a direct threat, scientists will closely monitor its trajectory during a close approach in the 2030s, continuing NASA’s vigilant surveillance of near-Earth objects.

‘NASA Just Launched an Atmosphere Spy Satellite’: Carruthers Observatory Monitors Earth’s Hydrogen Escape as Scientists Search for Alien Water Worlds

Potential Moon impact raises questions

The prospect of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with the Moon challenges our perception of celestial stability. This highlights the importance of continued vigilance in monitoring space threats and refining planetary defense strategies. Although the potential impact poses no direct danger to Earth, it promises a wealth of scientific knowledge. Such an event could revolutionize our understanding of impacts, crater formation and the behavior of celestial bodies.

The situation also raises broader questions about our ability to deal with future space threats. How prepared are we to deal with an event with unforeseen consequences and what additional steps can we take to safeguard our planet? As we continue to explore the cosmos, what new discoveries await us in the vast expanse of space?

This article is based on verified sources and supported by editorial technologies.

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