Journalist’s notebook: breaking the wave

On the ocean, the waves “break” when they start to reach a certain height near the coast. The waves are getting higher and higher. They gain power and speed. But the « break » comes when the waves begin to succumb to gravity. The top of the wave moves faster than the lower parts. This forces the wave to overturn on itself and break.

We may have witnessed a similar phenomenon in politics lately.

Political handicappers have previously predicted that a Republican red wave will peak and crash on the US Capitol in November as GOPers rack up big totals in the House of Representatives.

“Somewhere between 40 and 70 House seats,” former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., predicted on Fox in mid-July.

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« We’re going to win a majority and it won’t be a five-seat majority, » House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., told Punchbowl News’ Jake Sherman in mid-April.

McCarthy may be right on two counts: Republicans are still on track to win a majority in the House this fall. In fact, the redistricting could serve as a « firewall » for the party as Republican aspirations subside. And while Republicans can’t win 50 or 70 seats, they can have a smaller majority of 10 to 15 seats. Not just five.

The current House split is 220 Democrats to 211 Republicans.

But political analysts now suspect the political tsunami could dilute from a « red wave » to a gurgling, « red stream » meandering between political tributaries.

It comes after Representative-elect Pat Ryan, DN.Y., unexpectedly won a special election in upstate New York this week.

« Remember that energy, » Ryan said after his win. « We’ve responded to darkness, to division, to cynicism with hope, with positivity. With people power. Remember this. We’re going to take this in November. We’re going to defeat threats to our democracy. To our safety. To our freedom. »

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The Democrats prevailed in the New York special election when they weren’t supposed to. Ryan brought home the issue of abortion. It is believed that the decision overturning Roe v. Wade in this summer’s Dobbs decision energizes Democratic and pro-choice voters.

President Joe Biden, center, waves as he is joined by, from left, his son Hunter Biden, grandson Beau Biden, first lady Jill Biden and daughter-in-law Melissa Cohen
(AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

Additionally, Democrats failed to win recent special elections for House seats in Republican territory in Minnesota and Nebraska. But Democrats made those two contests much closer than they should have been. Additionally, Kansas voters defeated a ballot initiative — 59% to 41% — to remove the right to abortion from the state constitution. Such Democratic enthusiasm could help shield Rep. Sharice Davids, D-Kan., in her re-election bid this fall.

It’s a reminder that Democrats gained ground in a slew of special elections in Republican seats in 2017. Democrats held competitive special elections in Kansas, South Carolina and Montana — but failed to win any between them. However, the softness of the GOP in each of these elections foreshadowed Democratic strength heading into the 2018 midterms. Democrats took control of the House.

That’s why Democrats are now excited.

« Republicans should be very, very, very scared this morning about their prospects, » House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, said the day after Ryan won the special election. « I never thought we wouldn’t hold the House. That’s my mission. And that’s what I hope to accomplish. »

Special elections are just that: special. Snapshots in time. And a special election in mid-August is one of the last data points analysts need to study before the midterms.

« They tell us a lot about the momentum. And right now what we’re seeing is, I think to the great dismay of Republicans, growing Democratic momentum, » said Alison Dagnes, professor of political science at Shippensburg University in Pennsylvania. .

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Mid-terms are dependent on attendance. And Democrats have a new passion.

« The Dobbs decision resonated with the Democratic base. There’s a lesson for Republicans here,” said former Rep. Tom Davis, R-Va., who ran the House GOP political operation.

Hundreds of people gathered outside the Supreme Court awaiting the Dobbs decision.
(Joshua Comins/Fox News)

But, if certain arrows are now pointing in the direction of the Democrats, we must beware of guessing too much about the electoral successes of the party. In June, Republicans themselves flipped a seat from blue to red. Voters sent Rep. Mayra Flores, R-Tex., to Washington to succeed former Rep. Filemon Vela, D-Tex., who resigned.

So is 2022 like 2018?

Kyle Kondik of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia said the signs were « all pointing in the same direction » for Democrats in 2018. But this year, « the signals aren’t as clear. » Kondik says the recent surge by Democrats « creates a little more uncertainty than I think we thought we felt at this point in the cycle about the House. »

Note that during his July appearance on Fox, Gingrich said the prospects for a 40-70 GOP House seat pickup would not be « obvious until October. »

« In October, it will collapse, » promised the former president.

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For the GOP, there is a mantra: elect President Biden and the economy.

« Generally, people vote based on their perception of the president, » Kondik said. « Joe Biden’s approval rating, while much better, is still pretty bad. »

« When voters go to the polls, they’re going to ask themselves a simple question: ‘Am I better off now than before the pandemic? ‘” Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., asked on Fox. « The answer is no. »

But another factor is looming.

« Former President Trump is not on the ballot, » Dagnes observed. « But he is everywhere else. He is like the wind. He surrounds us. »

A man with a Trump 2024 flag is pictured outside Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida following an FBI raid on Donald Trump’s private home.
(Alon Skuy/Fox News Digital)

The former president’s controversies cut both ways. The Mar-a-Lago warrant and search galvanized loyalist Republicans. But the constant chatter about Mr. Trump infuriates other Republicans and independents.

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More talk of former President Trump distracts from the GOP message.

« If you’re Republicans, you want this to be a referendum on Joe Biden, » Davis said. “If it becomes Trump versus Biden, it will be a completely different election.”

The president’s party typically loses nearly 30 House seats in its first midterm election.

And as always, it’s all about the math.

As it stands, Republicans need to win five seats to topple the House. The president’s party only once lost less than five seats in mid-term. That was in 1962. The November elections of that year took place just days after the end of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Voters rewarded President John F. Kennedy for avoiding nuclear holocaust with the Soviets. The Democrats lost only four seats.

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And that’s why Kevin McCarthy might be right.

Republicans can still win a majority. And, by historical standards, it is likely that the majority will be more than five seats.