Analysts expect loan growth of around 11% year-on-year, while deposit growth is expected at around 8.5%. On a sequential basis, The Street forecasts loan growth of nearly 3.5%, although there is still room for a positive surprise. System-level credit growth has already been around 5% in the quarter, and ICICI Bank has historically tended to outperform industry trends, raising hopes of some outperformance this time as well.
On the earnings front, net interest income (NII) is expected to grow by around 8.4% year-on-year, while operating profit before provision (PPoP) is expected to increase by around 6.4%. However, profit growth is expected to remain moderate, at around 5% year-on-year. This is mainly due to expectations of higher slippages during the quarter, largely due to agricultural loans. Slippages tend to be seasonally higher in the first and third quarters, which could lead to higher credit costs.
Net interest margins (NIMs) are expected to increase by around three to four basis points. Margin support will likely come from CRR rate reductions as well as continued deposit mobilization and pricing review across the banking system.
Beyond the numbers, management comments will be closely monitored. The Street will seek clarification from Managing Director and CEO Sandeep Bakshi, whose current term ends in October 2026. Investors will also focus on guidance regarding growth momentum and margin sustainability.
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Overall, ICICI Bank is expected to deliver a stable set of results for the December quarter, with no significant negative surprises expected.
Ahead of the results announcement, shares of ICICI Bank ended Friday’s trading session down 0.38 per cent at ₹1,413 apiece. The Mumbai-based lender currently has a market capitalization of ₹10.05 lakh crore and has generated returns of around 13% over the past year.
