Fundamental overview
The increase in the USD laid down last week when the US government closed many key American economic reports. The “rethink trade” of the dollar needs solid American data to continue, especially on the side of the labor market, so that any hiccups on this front is likely to continue to weigh on the greenback. The market price is now back at 45 bps of softening at the end of the year and 110 bps by the end of 2026. This could still be too dominant, but we will need solid data to reproduce.
In the absence of government data, a drop in rate in October is now considered an agreement. The reality is that a October Cup has never really been in question. This is the December Cup which could be assessed in case the data is strengthened. We still have three NFPs and two CPI reports before the December meeting.
On the GBP side, we have no significant change in fundamental principles. The BOE left the interest rates unchanged in the last meeting but slowed down the rhythm of QT. The advice before was especially the same, the accent being more on inflation. The United Kingdom continues to have a serious inflation problem with a high basic IPC, high wages and an increase in consumer inflation expectations. The market only tariffs 6 softening bps at the end of the year and 37 bps by the end of 2026.
GBPUSD technical analysis – Daily delay time
Daily Gbpusd
On the daily graphic, we can see that Gbpusd has rebounded on the level of swing key at 1.3334 and extended the withdrawal in handle 1.35 before consolidating. The sellers will better short-circuit around the resistance of 1.3588 to target new stockings, while buyers will have a better risk of rewarding the configuration around the support of 1.3334 to position themselves for a rally in a new high cycle.
GBPUSD technical analysis – 4 hours
Gbpusd 4 hours
On the 4 -hour graphic, we can see that we were stuck in a 100 pip range between the handles of 1.34 and 1.35. Market players will probably continue to play the range until we get an escape from each side.
Gbpusd technical analysis – 1 hour
Gbpusd 1 hour
On the one hour table, there is not much other than we can add here because the buyers will probably rely on the support to position a rally in handle 1.35, while the sellers will seek a break to stack for a drop in level 1.3334. The red lines define the average daily beach for today.
Upcoming catalysts
On Thursday, we fed President Powell Powell and American unemployment complaints (if the closure is lifted). Friday, we conclude the week with the report on feelings of consumers of the University of Michigan.
