Using a high draft pick on an injury-prone player, or any player who misses a lot of games, can quickly ruin a fantastic season.
The same goes for using a high pick on a player who is expected to see his minutes decrease compared to last season.
Savvy fantasy managers are able to detect these types of situations in advance and stay away from these players on draft day.
Here are five big names to avoid in your drafts this season.
Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers
Embiid has averaged just 50 games over nine seasons and he only appeared in 19 games last year. He never played more than 68 games in a season and he only reached 60 games four times. Yes, Embiid is a dominant fantasy player when healthy, but most of the reports from the summer were not encouraging. Maybe he’ll shock the world and play 70 games, but the chances of that happening are extremely slim. I’m avoiding Embiid completely, but if I were forced to draft him, I would definitely use the last pick in my draft to get Adem Bona, who will take over on the nights Embiid watches in street clothes.
Anthony Davis, PF/C, Dallas Mavericks
Like Embiid, Davis has a long history of missing games due to injury, and as we saw last season, that didn’t change when he was traded to the Mavericks. This season, Cooper Flagg has been given the keys to the car in Dallas, Kyrie Irving (Achilles) will miss much of the campaign and the Mavs aren’t expected to be very good. It won’t take much for Davis to be sidelined for an extended period of time whenever he’s injured and a premature shutdown isn’t out of the question either. He played in 76 games during the 2023-24 season, but he was an outlier. This is an incredibly risky first-round pick.
Paul George, SF/PF, Philadelphia 76ers
George, who is 35, was a fantasy disaster last season, playing in just 41 games. He underwent offseason knee surgery in July and his availability is questionable for the start of the season. Games played is still an issue for George, and the Sixers are serious candidates to tank in hopes of retaining this summer’s draft pick. Additionally, Embiid’s future is murky due to his health issues. Tyrese Maxey was shut down last season and it’s hard to see the Sixers not trying to protect their draft pick again for this campaign. I won’t recruit George, no matter how low he might fall.
Ivica Zubac, C, LA Clippers
Zubac is coming off a fantastic season in which he posted averages of 16.8 points, 12.6 rebounds and 1.1 blocks in 32.8 minutes per game. The points, rebounds and minutes were all easily career highs and the Clippers simply had no one to relieve the big man. They signed Brook Lopez this summer, who has been a starter throughout his career, and that means there is absolutely no reason for Zubac to play big minutes again this year. Around 25 minutes per game seems like a reasonable expectation for Zubac in 2025-26, which means a reduction of eight minutes per game. While I don’t expect true shared ownership between the two big men, Zubac’s numbers simply have to go down. Zubac averaged just 11.7 points and 9.2 rebounds in his previous season.
Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C, Atlanta Hawks
Porzingis is great when he plays, but he hasn’t played consecutively for most of his career and the Celtics used him as a center in two games last year. He’s now with the Hawks, who have an excellent young prospect in Onyeka Okongwu, and while they could start Porzingis at power forward and Okongwu at center, it’s hard to imagine Porzingis playing much more than half the season. His game history speaks for itself: 42, 57, 65, 51, 43, 57, 0, 48, 66 and 72. He has appeared in at least 60 games on only three occasions in his 10 year career and I would be shocked if he plays in more than 55 games in this one.
