Democrats rebound in polls after Roe v. wade
But a look at new polls shows that maybe some things matter.
We’ll start there by looking at the political week that took place.
Monmouth’s latest result, however, marked an improvement for Democrats who had trailed 50% to 43% in the university’s last wildcard ballot poll in May.
Normally, I would consider movement from poll to poll statistical noise. These two Monmouth results are within each other’s margin of error.
But a look at all the polls shows the same thing: Democrats have been winning on the generic ballot since Roe was unseated.
It’s a sign that voters may be more reactive to events than we realize.
By my count, there were eight different pollsters who asked about the generic ballot and conducted polling before and after the Supreme Court found there was no federal constitutional right to vote. ‘abortion.
Each of them found that the Democrats did better in their poll taken after the abortion compared to the one taken before the abortion. The average shift was about 3 points in favor of the Democrats.
This 3-point change may not seem like much, and it could reverse as we get further from the decision. Still, that puts Democrats in their best position on the wildcard ballot in the past six months.
Meanwhile, the percentage of voters who said it would not be a major issue had fallen to just 16%. This is by far the lowest Gallup has measured in an election year.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the percentage was higher in future polls given that the Gallup poll was taken before we knew for sure that the Supreme Court would overturn Roe.
A few points movement in key races could make all the difference in the world.
Why Boris had to leave, but Biden still has a chance
Johnson’s announced departure came as no surprise, however. Polls have shown him in bad shape and provide a useful point of comparison as to why the US leader (Biden) may be down but shouldn’t be counted out just yet.
Biden, who is at the lowest point of his presidency, has a 38% approval rating by comparison. The only president with such a low approval rating at this point in their first term was Harry Truman in 1946. Truman’s Democratic Party lost both the House and Senate midterm.
Truman, however, is proving Biden can recover. Truman will win the presidential election of 1948.
Indeed, there are a number of examples of presidents who had approval ratings at some point in their first term that are comparable to Biden’s at this time and won another presidential election. Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan come to mind, in addition to Truman.
There are also examples of presidents who were equally or more unpopular than Biden and lost. See Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford and Trump.
The lesson here, however, is that approval ratings at this point tell us little about whether a president will get another term. It is very different from Johnson, who was in a position from which no British prime minister had ever recovered.
The final straw for Johnson was when his popularity with his own Conservative Party members began to fall below 50% in some UK polls. This really put pressure on Conservative Party members in the UK and led many to withdraw their support for the Prime Minister.
That 50% mark is where Nixon’s approval rating stood among Republicans before his resignation.
That doesn’t mean Biden is safe or anything like that. It just shows that he has far more strength and potential than Johnson did when the curtains closed on his government.
For your brief encounters: it’s hot there
So, while the next few weeks will be difficult, the climatology suggests that the worst will soon be over.
Remnants of surveys
Baseball Star Vote: We’re just over a week away from the month’s only federal primary election, but Major League Baseball fans have already given their verdict on who will start this month’s All-Star Game. Unfortunately for this Yankees hater, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton were selected.