The Conservative Party leads the Liberals by five percentage points when it comes to who Canadians would vote for, according to Nanos Research’s latest federal poll tracker.
In the latest episode of Trend Line, pollster Nik Nanos said the Conservatives got 36% of the vote, while the Liberals got 31%, NDP 19%, Bloc Québécois 6%, Green Party 19%. five percent and the People’s Party of Canada at three percent.
“It seems right now that Canadians are grumpy and the Conservatives are in charge. And you know what? If those numbers go up even more, especially based on the outcome of the Conservative election this fall, that could be very bad news for the Liberal Party,” Nanos said.
Candice Bergen leads the Conservative Party on an interim basis as members prepare to elect a permanent leader on September 10.
The pollster said several factors are at play, including the simple fact that each ruling party has an expiration date. He also pointed to recent Liberal announcements that did not commit to any new spending, but were based on previous promises.
“There aren’t a lot of new things. There are a lot of things they are still working on, like reconciliation. Like on the environment. And I think for some Canadians it seems a bit tired for the Liberals,” he said.
ECONOMY AND INFLATION TREATMENT
Canadians also expect a major slowdown in the economy over the next 60 to 90 days, according to the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index completed June 17.
On the 100-point scale, anything below 50 is negative and anything above 50 is positive. Right now, Canadians are hovering around the threshold of neutrality – only the fourth time in 14 years that public opinion has reached that threshold.
One such period was the 2008 recession and, more recently, the pandemic.
Nanos said Wednesday’s news that the annual inflation rate in May hit its highest level in nearly 40 years will heighten economic concerns.
“This is just another piece of news that is creating a high level of anxiety and uncertainty for average Canadians,” he said.
And while housing market perceptions have been consistently high, the pollster said they were also down.
About 41% of respondents to a Nanos, Bloomberg phone survey said they thought real estate values would rise, down 13 percentage points over the past four weeks. Another 26 percent think it will decline, up from 12 percent.
“I think it has a lot to do with you know people are worried about rising interest rates, what inflation might mean, and also just worry about the economy. So, the boiling real estate market, period, at least today, is no longer hot,” he said.
For ballot tracking: 1,094 random interviews recruited by RDD (land and cell lines) random telephone survey of Canadians aged 18 and older, ending June 17, 2022. Data is based on a rolling average of four weeks where each week the oldest group of 250 interviews are removed and a new group of 250 are added. A random telephone survey of 1,094 Canadians is accurate to within 2.9 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.