Bihar Politics: Mahagathbandhan strengthens ahead of 2025 Assembly elections

The opposition Mahagathbandhan family is growing in Bihar. With each passing election, its strength increases, posing a serious challenge to the ruling NDA. In the 2020 assembly elections, five parties contested under the Mahagathbandhan banner. During the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) had joined the alliance.

Now, as preparations begin for the 2025 assembly elections, the Mahagathbandhan could potentially include eight parties, making it the largest political alliance in Bihar.

New additions to the alliance

Alongside erstwhile allies like the RJD, Congress, CPI(ML), CPI and CPM, the Mahagathbandhan has now brought:

• VIP by Mukesh Sahni
• RLJP by Pashupati Kumar Paras
• Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)

Another party, the Indian Inquilab Party (IIP) led by IP Gupta, is in the final stages of negotiations to join the alliance. A final decision could be announced at the Mahagathbandhan meeting scheduled for September 15. If confirmed, it would make Mahagathbandhan the alliance with the largest number of constituent parties in Bihar.

NDA tracks party numbers

Currently, the Mahagathbandhan has seven parties, which is expected to become eight with the inclusion of the IIP. In contrast, the NDA includes five elements:

• BJP
• JDU
• HAM (Jitan Ram Manjhi)
• Rashtriya Lok Janata Dal (Upendra Kushwaha)
• LJP-R (Chirag Paswan)

Mukesh Sahni, once an ally of the NDA, has now clearly moved to the opposition. Although the NDA holds more seats in the current assembly (by around 10-12 MLAs), the Mahagathbandhan leadership believes it lost the 2020 elections by a margin of just 11,000 votes – a gap it is confident of closing in 2025.
Strategy to regain power

The Mahagathbandhan’s strategy focuses on constituencies narrowly lost in 2020. To strengthen its social base, the alliance appeals to caste-based parties that represent specific voter segments.

• Mukesh Sahni is expected to consolidate the Nishad vote.
• Pashupati Paras, former Union minister, extends support to Dalits.
• IP Gupta, a former Congress leader who launched the IIP after a massive rally at Gandhi Maidan, is supported by the Paan Samaj community, particularly that of the Tanti-Tatva castes.

The challenges of seat sharing ahead

An expanding alliance means a more complex seat-sharing arrangement. In 2020:

• The RJD is seeking 144 seats
• Congress is contesting 70 seats
• Left-wing parties contested 29 seats in total

This time, the RJD and the Congress agreed to reduce their share to accommodate new partners:

• Congress could reduce its demand to around 55-60 seats
• The RJD could reduce 10 to 15 seats
• Left parties are likely to retain their 29 seats, although the CPI (ML) could increase its share to 25 seats

Proposed seat distribution for the new allies:

• Mukesh Sahni VIP: 15 to 18 seats
• RLJP (Paras): 2 to 3 seats
• JMM: 2 places
• IIP (IP Gupta): 5 to 7 seats (if finalized)

However, all allies demand more. For example, Mukesh Sahni wants 60 seats and the post of Deputy CM, while the CPI (ML) wants 45 seats. Meanwhile, the Congress is insisting on contesting 70 seats again, saying it was unfairly allocated unwinnable constituencies in 2020.

The NDA is banking on the development of a “double engine”

The NDA is riding on the performance of its two-engine government: the BJP at the Center and the JDU in the state. Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Bihar several times and announced several development projects. The Nitish Kumar-led state government is emphasizing on infrastructure, education, healthcare and rural development.

NDA leaders say the development agenda will trump caste and alliance politics and they are confident of returning to power in 2025.