The Indian Express reported that the BJP and JDU are expected to contest 100-105 seats each out of a total of 243 constituencies. The Lok Janshakti (Ram Vilas) Party, led by Chirag Paswan, which is seeking 40 seats, could get around half of them. The remaining seats will be divided between Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM (S) and Upendra Kushwaha’s RLM.
The equations could change if Mukesh Sahani’s VIP, who is currently part of the RJD-Congress Mahagathbandhan, decides to shift to the NDA, the report mentioned.
JDU position, LJP request
In 2020, the JDU contested 115 seats and the BJP 110, while the VIP (then in the NDA) fought 11 and the HAM(S) seven. The LJP alone contested 135 seats, thus hurting the JDU’s prospects, even though it won only one. The BJP emerged stronger with 74 seats against 43 for the JDU.
The report said the JD(U) was not willing to settle for less than 100 seats. “The party still commands nearly 10 per cent vote share in Bihar, largely among EBCs, and the elections are being held under the leadership of Nitish Kumar. The campaign is focused on his return to the CM’s post, so there is no question of the JDU accepting fewer seats than the BJP,” a senior leader of the alliance told IE.
The LJP (RV) remains the most difficult nut to solve. Although it won only one seat in 2020, its aggressive strategy hurt the JDU in 27 constituencies. Now, buoyed by its performance in the Lok Sabha in 2024 – winning all five seats it contested and securing over 6 per cent of the vote – the party is pushing for 40 seats in the Assembly.
A senior BJP leader termed the demand excessive: “They have five MLAs and that will be respected, but the realistic figure is closer to 20. We also need to accommodate Kushwaha, Manjhi and maybe a few newcomers.” »
JDU leaders, meanwhile, say performance in the Lok Sabha does not automatically translate into the Assembly polls. “Local strength and presence on the ground matter much more,” one executive told the newspaper.
Pressure tactics
LJP (RV) leaders have intensified their criticism of the Nitish government, especially in the area of law and order. Chirag Paswan has spoken in favor of a return to state politics, with the aim of broadening his base to ultimately obtain 15% of the votes in Bihar.
Despite its ambitions, the party won only 5.66% of the vote in 2020, although its role as spoilsport remains a critical factor in calculating seat sharing this year.
