The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and opposition India Bloc are racing to finalize seat-sharing deals, but the anxious days come with internal tensions bubbling just below the surface.
The electoral contest is largely expected to be a straight fight between the incumbent NDA, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led Mahagathbandhan.
In the 243-member Bihar assembly, the NDA currently holds 131 seats – BJP 80, JD(U) 45, Ham(s) 4 and two independents. The Mahagathbandhan holds 111 – RJD 77, Congress 19, CPI (ML) 11, CPI (M) 2 and CPI 2.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA won 29 out of 40 seats in Bihar, with the BJP and JD(U) taking 12 seats each, giving the alliance momentum ahead of the assembly contest.
While the NDA appears confident on paper, behind-the-scenes negotiations, particularly involving Chirag Paswan, Jitan Ram Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha, have left the alliance juggling competing demands. The Indian bloc, meanwhile, hopes to lock in its caste arithmetic, with Tejashwi Yadav anchoring its EBC-focused terrain.
And adding an unpredictable third axis is Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, which has quietly expanded its presence on the ground and claims to be ready for a full-fledged electoral debut.
This is how the three sides are positioning themselves for Bihar 2025.
NDA: between public trust and private tensions
In public, NDA allies present unity, but behind closed doors, seat-sharing negotiations remain a delicate balance. Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, who has been made the BJP’s election in-charge for Bihar, is leading the outreach to the alliance partners.
Over the weekend, he held a series of one-on-one meetings with key allies, including JD(U) chief Rajiv Ranjan Singh ‘Lalan Singh’, Hindustani Awam Morcha (Ham) chief Jitan Ram Manjhi and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) Head Upendra Kushwaha.
While Manjhi played down any discord, saying “all is well in the NDA” and that seat-sharing would be resolved soon, his subsequent flight to New Delhi the same evening raised speculation that further negotiation was underway. Pradhan also called Lalan Singh and Kushwaha separately, although Singh described the BJP-JD(U) meeting as just a “courtesy call”.
Despite the optics, BJP insiders have indicated that a working formula is nearing finalization: the BJP can contest around 101 seats, JD(U) around 102, with the rest distributed among allies including Chirag Paswan’s Hamjhi and Kushwaha’s RLM.
Chirag Paswan remains a focal point in the NDA’s internal calculations. Fresh from a successful Lok Sabha campaign, where his party contested only five seats but punched above its weight, Chirag is now reportedly demanding as many as 40 assembly seats. While BJP leaders credit him with “bouncing back” from his outsider status in 2020, when his party ran solo and damaged JD(U)’s prospects, they are also wary of ceding too much ground.
BJP sources suggest that the alliance may not be able to part ways with more than 20 seats. The fact that he is pushing for a major share suggests a potential flash point ahead. If left unresolved, it could disrupt the delicate caste and regional balance of the alliance.
India Bloc: Tejashwi Leads, EBC Pitch Front and Center
On the opposition front, Indian bloc leaders met at Tejashwi Yadav’s residence in Patna to resume seat-sharing arrangements. The meeting was attended by senior leaders of the RJD, Congress, Left parties and the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP).
CPM leader Ajay Kumar told The Indian Express that the seat-sharing formula has been finalized and will be announced formally on Tuesday. Bihar Congress president Rajesh Ram and VIP chief Mukesh Sahani were also present, signaling the bloc’s attempt to project cohesion. The RJD separately convened its core leadership to finalize its own internal allocations ahead of the official declaration.
Even before announcing its list of candidates, the India Alliance made a bold caste-centric pitch with the launch of the ‘ATI Pichhda Nyay Sankalp’, a manifesto focusing exclusively on the Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) of Bihar, who make up around 36% of the state’s population.
This 10-point resolution includes promises such as:
- A new law to prevent atrocities against EBCs, on the lines of the SC/ST law
- Increase the EBC reserve in local organizations from 20% to 30%
- A bid to raise the reservation cap by 50% by seeking inclusion of state law in the Ninth Schedule
- OMSATIVE private schools to reserve half of their RTE quota for backward groups
- A 50% quota for EBCS, SCS, STS and OBC in state contracts up to Rs 25 crore
- A high-powered reservation regulator to monitor implementation
- This stupid EBC signals an attempt by the Indian bloc to erode the traditional base of the NDA.
The benefits of revealing the changes, but not yet the NDA manifesto
While Bloc India’s caste strategy is now out in the open, the NDA is yet to release a formal manifesto. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar have made targeted announcements over the past few weeks, particularly women, youth and marginalized communities.
Prime Minister Modi launched the ‘Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana’ in Bihar in September, transferring Rs 10,000 each to 75 lakh women across the state, a massive direct benefit aimed at creating entrepreneurs.
Besides, Nitish Kumar announced over 20 welfare measures including:
- ₹1,000/month Unemployment benefit for graduates
- Interest-free educational loans and extended repayment windows
- Ris pension at ₹1,100 for differently abled elderly widows
- 9,000 honorarium for Anganwadi workers and Rs 3,000 incentive for ASHA workers
- Free electricity up to 125 units, support for solar plants for the poorest families
- ₹10,000 initial supports to one woman per household to start a business, with follow-up assistance of up to ₹2 lakh
- While these announcements are not packaged as a formal manifesto, they signal the NDA’s strategy to saturate the social welfare space before the model code of conduct kicks in.
Jan Suraaj: the X factor
The third force in the triangular contest in Bihar is Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, which is likely to contest all 243 seats. The party said it would field its “first list of candidates” for the Bihar Assembly polls on October 9.
Besides promising adequate number of tickets for women, Muslims and Extremely Backward Classes (EBC), Kishor also said he might enter the fray himself “if the party takes the decision”.
If Jan Suraaj manages even single-digit vote shares in some seats, he could dent the margins in closely contested constituencies, particularly in the central regions of Bihar and Mithila.
Election preparation
In a first, the Election Commission will deploy 243 general observers – one for each Assembly constituency – replacing the earlier practice of allocating a single observer to multiple seats. The scale of the deployment is unprecedented: over 8.5 lakh polling personnel, 17,800 micro-observers for the polling day, 4,800 for counting and around 2.5 lakh police officers. There will also be 29,000 counting officials, 38 police observers and 67 expenditure observers monitoring the process.
The EC has also intensified voter awareness and digital surveillance. There are now 90,712 Booth Level Officers (BLOS) and 243 Electoral Registration Officers (ERO) on the ground. Voters can access services through the Ecinet app or by calling the 1950 hotline number – including scheduling a call with their local BLO.
In another first, real-time participation data will be made public via a dedicated dashboard. Presiding officers will upload turnout figures to the Ecinet platform every two hours on Election Day to reduce information lag.
Logistics reforms are also being rolled out. Polling stations will now be capped at 1,200 voters each to minimize overcrowding and queue reduction times. In high-rise areas, additional stands will be set up. To facilitate access, voters will be able to drop off their cell phones at designated counters outside polling stations.
Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar described the upcoming polls as a landmark exercise, promising that “Bihar elections will be easy for voters” with complete law and order monitoring. This time, the state has 7.43 crore registered voters, including 14 lakh first-time voters.
