Already seen in France while political chaos returns, but there is a difference

While the news of the resignation of the French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu broke out on Monday morning, journalists rushed to get in touch with government spokespersons to clarify which ministers were really in charge: those that Lecornu had only appointed the previous night, or those who were previously in office before the reshuffle?

This is how unprecedented and unique the French political situation is at the moment (and by the way, the answer is: those named Sunday evening will be picked until a new Prime Minister and a government are chosen).

Thirteen hours after announcing his new government’s office and only 27 days of work, Lecornu resigned to French President Emmanuel Macron.

Political fragmentation after the election of Snap in July 2024 caused this instability, the opposing political blocks emerging in the two voting cycles which fell away from an absolute majority.

This led Macron to install minority governments on which was based and finally failed, due to precarious pacts and transactions.

On the one hand, there is now an air of deja vu in France: the next PM will be Macron’s sixth in less than two years.

On the other hand, the current crisis is different: the government of Lecornu was not overthrown by the opposition, like those of the predecessors Michel Barnier or François Bayrou – it was his own allies who caused his fall.

In his speech on Monday morning to explain his decision to resign, Lecornu blamed the intransigence of political parties for the dead end that France is.

“I was ready to compromise, but each political party wanted the other political party to adopt its entire program,” he said, adding that “the composition of the government has awakened certain partisan appetites which are not linked to the future presidential election”.

It was a barely hidden criticism of Bruno Retailleau, the freshly renowned Minister of the Interior and head of the central-right group, the Republicans (LR).

Shortly after the appointments on Sunday evening, Retailleau criticized the composition of a government “which does not reflect the promised rupture” by Lecornu, and said that the executive of his party would meet the next day to decide if it was going to continue to support the government.

The LR and its 49 legislators had been part of the “common base” (common base) working with the centrist alliance of Macron, the whole, since the instant election, and even before that on certain key reforms. Many have occupied key roles, notably Bruno Le Maire, the former Minister of Economy and Finance whose return to government while the new Minister of Defense has ruffled feathers within the LR party.

It is quite ironic that a party that likes to present itself as the party of responsibility, in particular with regard to public finances, sparked the last French political crisis. But the distancing of LR of the government has left Lecornu without room for the maneuver.

In a way, the rupture of the “common base” is not surprising. As we get closer to the 2027 presidential election, key parties and personalities are thinking of their future. Macron cannot run again after winning the presidency twice. With its unpopularity, even the allies are starting to distance themselves. LR’s latest decision could be another step in broader political realignment before the elections.

So now, all eyes turn to Elysee, once again.

In a surprise turn on Monday evening, Macron gave Lecornu 48 overtime for “final discussions” with rival evenings to try to break the dead end.

Lecornu wrote on the X social media platform that he will point out from the president on Wednesday evening on any potential breakthrough “so that he can draw all the necessary conclusions”.

It is difficult to see what Lecornu can achieve in 48 hours, beyond what he has done since his appointment almost a month ago.

So, will the next step be another Snap election?

The extreme right led by Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen call for this. It is not surprising, because the polls show them in mind with 30 to 35% of the votes.

This was also the case last year, but ultimately a coalition of the left, and a so-called “cordon health” vote, came out. This coalition between the extreme left, the Communists, the Greens and the Socialists has since implosed.

A dissolution of the National Assembly would indeed be the logical democratic choice in the current situation, but there is no guarantee that it would provide a clearer majority.

Lecornu concluded his statement of resignation on Monday morning saying: “You always have to prefer your country to his party.”

The result of the early elections of last year was a test: would French legislators learn to work in large coalitions as well as of their European counterparts? Quick advance of 15 months, the answer is a resounding “no”.