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A poll that should scare Donald Trump
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has 39% in a New Hampshire Republican presidential primary poll, while Trump is at 37%. No other potential GOP candidate manages double-digit support, with former Vice President Mike Pence in third place at 9%.

This is a MAJOR change from last fall’s race. A UNH poll in October 2021 showed Trump with 43% to DeSantis’ 18%.

Another interesting nugget from the poll: Only 6 in 10 self-identified Republicans (62%) want the former president to run again in 2024. Which is, well, pretty low?

Now that’s just one poll in a state that’s expected to be one of the first to vote in the 2024 primary season. If you look at all the polls done in the broader Republican race for the House Blanche, Trump is still in the lead. And he would launch a third presidential bid as the frontrunner for the GOP nomination.

(Check out my ranking of the 10 Republicans most likely to win the 2024 nomination.)

But it has become increasingly clear that the main race is no longer correctly understood as Trump and everyone, but rather Trump, DeSantis and everyone.

And DeSantis has, for some time now, been less dependent on Trump.

As Politico reported on Wednesday, “According to four people connected to the governor and former president, DeSantis has not asked Trump for a formal endorsement and has no plans to do so.”
And DeSantis just got the New Yorker profile treatment. (The headline: “Can Ron DeSantis replace Donald Trump as chief GOP fighter?”) This story includes this telling line: “Articulate and quick on his feet, he’s been described as Trump with a brain. »
Trump has largely ignored DeSantis’ prospects. “If I faced him, I would beat him like I would beat everyone,” Trump said last fall. “I think most people would give up; I think he would give up.”
But DeSantis’ strong showing in the polls, coupled with the $112 million he has in his gubernatorial campaign coffers, suggests circumstances have changed in the 2024 race — and Trump must change with it.

Point: The Republican primary no longer looks like a runaway for Trump.


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