Taro Aso, the former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of Japan, delivers a speech during a regular session at the lower house of Parliament in Tokyo, Japan, Monday, January 20, 2020. Photographer: Kiyoshi OTA/Bloomberg via Getty Images Images
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Sanae Takaichi, expected to become Japan’s next prime minister, on Tuesday chose first prime minister and party heavyweight Taro Aso as her ruling party’s vice chairwoman, a move that some analysts saw as a restraining force against big fiscal spending.
Takaichi also chose former Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki as general secretary of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), a job that wields enormous influence in party affairs, in a list of key party positions announced Tuesday.
The announcements came after the ruling party’s choice of Dove Takaichi on Saturday, putting her on track to become Japan’s first female prime minister.
Japanese stock prices rose and the yen collapsed this week on market expectations that Takaichi will roll out a big fiscal stimulus and pressure the central bank to raise interest rates.
“During the leadership race, the ASO faction supported Takaichi, so his administration may remain heavily influenced by him,” said Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at the Nomura Research Institute.
“ASO’s influence could moderate fiscal or overly painful aggressive monetary impulses,” he said Suzuki’s addition is also seen as emphasizing fiscal discipline.
ASO was prime minister when the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 sent the global economy into turmoil.
While serving as finance minister when former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe rolled out his “Abenomics” stimulus policies in 2013, ASO preached the need to keep Japan’s fiscal house in order. He is thus seen by markets as taking a more balanced approach to fiscal policy than supporters of aggressive spending like Takaichi.
But bond markets remained nervous over prospects Takaichi’s minority coalition could form an alliance with an opposition party and nod to its calls for tax cuts and big spending.
The yield on Japan’s 20-year government bond (JGB) marked a new 26-year high and the benchmark 10-year yield marked 17 on Tuesday, on market views Takaichi’s policies could dent Japan’s already worsening finances.
Domestic media reported that Takaichi was in talks to possibly form an alliance with the People’s Democratic Party, which has proposed income tax reforms aimed at boosting take-home pay for working households.
“If Takaichi chose the Democratic Party, the size of spending could increase depending on what his leader demands in exchange for forming an alliance,” said Naomi Muguruma, chief bond strategist at Mitsubishi Ufj Morgan Stanley Securities.
“There is no guarantee that Aso would serve as a counterforce against big spending,” she said. “Given so much uncertainty, there won’t be many investors willing to buy JGB.”
