The American holiday shopping season is expected to bring in $ 253.4 billion in online sales this year, up 5.3% in annual shift, according to a new report from the Connected Division of Adobe’s electronic commerce, Adobe Analytics.
Adobe Analytics develops its forecasts by analyzing more than 1 billion of visits to American retail sites, encompassing 100 million references in 18 product categories. Its analysis software is used by the majority of the best online retailers in the United States, which gives it an in-depth overview of online purchases and consumer behavior.
The company plans that Cyber Monday will again be the biggest shopping day of the year, up 6.3% in annual shift to 14.2 billion dollars. Black Friday will also see higher growth, up 8.3% in annual shift to 11.7 billion dollars. American consumers on Thanksgiving Day should also spend 6.4 billion dollars online, up 4.9% in annual shift, while online sales start early.
The management of sales during this holiday season will be the request of consumer consumers, where products should be 28% reduction on listed prices. Other trends such as purchases from mobile devices, the use of AI services to buy and buy now, subsequent services are other factors behind the increase in online sales.
In particular, Adobe predicts that the generative purchases fed by the AI will be exploded this year, IA traffic should increase by 520% in annual sliding and a peak in the 10 days preceding Thanksgiving. This follows the 1300% increase in IA traffic to American retail sites observed in 2024.
The company expects consumers to use AI for research before purchasing, based on a survey of 5,000 American consumers – which 53% said they could use AI services to this end. The survey also revealed that 40% said they would use AI for recommendations, 36% for the conclusion of transactions and 30% for the inspiration of gifts. Adobe expects AI to be used the most in all categories such as toys, electronics, jewelry and personal care.
Another expected trend this year again implies mobile devices to drive more online expenses compared to office purchases, reaching a record share of 56.1%. Last year, mobile represented 54.5% of online transactions during this period, compared to 51.1% in 2023. It is not clear when mobile growth will weaken and stabilize, especially given the wider smartphone devices available on the market, which facilitates online purchase.
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The 2025 vacation purchases will also see additional growth in the purchase now, paying services (BNPL), which should generate $ 20.2 billion in online spending, up 11% from one year to the next and approximately 2 billion dollars more than the 2024 holiday season. The Cyber Monday should also see a new BNPL stage, when online expenses in this category should reach $ 1.04 billion, up 5% from one year to the next.
Social media will also stimulate more online sales this year. Advertising on social networks should lead to an increase of 51% of one year on the other of online income, against growth of 5% over the year in 2024.
The main categories for overall expenses include electronics ($ 57.5 billion, up 4% in annual sliding), clothing ($ 47.6 billion, up 4.4% in annual sliding) and furniture ($ 31.1 billion, up 6.5% in annual sliding).
